SPEAKER_03 0:00

You were winning somebody's winning their first bet, which means they're basically not losing a hand in the trip. Would they not have changed totally to an up as you win whether four or five bets in a row since they're saying, I'm never losing, I therefore must be in a streaking game, regardless of what else they're seeing?

SPEAKER_05 0:16

Not necessarily. Not necessarily. If you are in a streaking game, uh yeah, the question yesterday that I was responding to here is the fellow was playing, the puck fellow was playing right along, and then all of a sudden he hit a shoe where he he won four or five, six hands in a row. So he was very discouraged by the fact that he won four or five, six hands in a row because he wasn't playing up as you win betting. Okay? You should not just go ahead and change your whole betting strategy over what occurred in the last four or five hands when you've been sitting there playing several shoes in the game, you know it's a type one game. NBJ has you winning low ratio rounds. So every now and then you are going to win four or five in a row. But watch what happens when you use the up as you win betting. Let's say that you have four hands in a row that you win. And you lose the fifth one. Okay, so when when did you decide that you were going to win the four in a row? Did you decide it after one hand? No. Did you decide it after two? Did you decide after three? When do you increase your bet? But let's just assume that somehow you knew, okay, and so you're going to increase your bet. So you went 25, all right? You went, here you bet 50. Here you bet, let's say 75, and let's say here you bet 100, and let's say here you bet 125. You won $125 there. Okay? And they're up as you win betting. 125. Okay. Okay? But you haven't taken on any risk. Recognize that with up as you win betting, you're always going to lose your highest bet. The break-even is that you have to win more than three in a row to make any money on up as you win betting. You have to win more than three in a row. Okay? Let's look at that. Let's say that it broke off right here and you lost this one. Okay, you won three in a row, so you won $25, you won $50, you won $75. Altogether you won $150, but you're going to lose this one. So for the four of them, you're going to win $50 with up as you win betting. Okay? If you don't do that, you're going to win $25, you're going to win another $5, you're going to win another $5. That's $75. You're going to lose this one. You also won $50. Okay, so there's no difference. So up-as-you-win betting only works if you're if you're going to win more than three in a row. Now, how often in the casino do you win more than three in a row? And do you want to bet base your entire betting system on the winning more than three in a row? It's just not practical. You don't win more than three in a row that often. It must be a streaking game where you can plan on winning three in a row frequently. Okay? So no, you just don't react to it at all. That's why I say in this situation over here, gee, that's that's too bad. You won six in a row. I feel sorry for you. You know? But it's no reason to go back now and change your whole betting strategy.

SPEAKER_02 3:46

Can you go to a two-four-six?

SPEAKER_05 3:48

Yeah, well, that's what I was going to go into, so don't even bother with the question. I was going to show you some tricks with the 146. And tell you what to do. If in the game, I'll tell you something to do that I think is much better than going to up as you win betting. If in the game, you are finding that you'll find in any game that you're either going to win this bet most of the time, or that you're going to win this bet most of the time, or that you're going to win this bet most of the time. And it's very easy to know. Because when you're betting, when you're winning a $100 bet most of the time, you know it. It's not something that's going to slip your mind. Okay? If you're winning this bet most of the time, simply go to a two, three, four negative progression. A two, three, four negative progression. In that game, uh, Suzanne, in that game at the castle, the $50 game, that's what I did. I went to the two, three, four progression because I was winning the first bet the most most of the time. And we won, we got up to 2,200 and I don't know.

SPEAKER_07 5:16

Can we reproduce?

SPEAKER_00 5:19

Last night at the sands, I played at midnight. Uh, from one of the recommendations of you gentlemen here. I went into the 146 progression right away. Then I went to two, three, four. I did sixty-six units. I wasn't feeling well, is the only reason we had to quit. But you could stay there forever. They were stripping the cards, they were plugging them, they were doing all kinds of nasty things. But NBJ pulled 66 units off the table for me and 40 off for my husband. Uh a little over an hour.

SPEAKER_05 6:00

And yet the guy that lives here can't find a game? No, wait a minute. All right. If you're winning the first bet, you want to change your progression to a 234. Now, this is uh this is a very major item because what 234 does is it puts the emphasis on the first bet, number one, and number two, it lowers your overall risk to nine units. If you lose the progression, you're going after more money. You'll find, remember this averages about one chip per hand? Well, this obviously is going to average a lot more than what it's going to average a lot more than one chip per hand, okay? But your risk is only nine chips. Should you lose the entire progression? You follow me? So that's much better than going to an up as you win progression.

SPEAKER_03 7:00

Looking at the progression, why would you have not made two, three, five? Because it looks like in every other progression, you at least are coming to say if I at least win the third bet, I'm either winning one chip or breaking even. In this case, if you win the third bet, you're guaranteeing you're losing the money.

SPEAKER_05 7:16

Yeah. You can. You can go to a to a uh a two, three, five. It makes I mean it's just personal preference. It's just personal preference. Here's what I I feel though, is that when you're when you're losing three in a row or when you're losing two in a row, uh you can you can lose one, all right? When you lose two, there's likely maybe there's a reason for losing two. When you lose three, it's quite likely that there's a reason for it. So I don't put a lot of emphasis on the third bet. A lot of people play one, three, five, okay, but if you work out a one-three-five to what happens over the course of an entire game, you'll find that a one-four-six is much better than a one-three-five. But I often play, you're liable to hit the table max with this, and you'll find that you'll need to play one, four, five a lot of the times. For instance, if you if you get up to five hundred dollar bets at Atlantic City, the table max is $2,500. So you end up playing a $1,4-5. And if you go up into a lot of these casinos, they'll have a $500 max or even lower, where you can't fit a $1,400 into their min max situation that they have the table. That's the only time I'll I'll low I'll fool around with that with that last bet. Now, let's that's what happens if you're winning this bet most of the time. Okay? Go to a two, three, four. Now, that's probably the best game that you can get into right there. But right close behind it, let me give this one a chance to warm up. Right close behind it is when you're winning this bet, most of the time. If you're winning that bet, most of the time, it's a very favorable situation. You're winning half of the hands, but you're winning a ton of money, because out of for every two hands, you're winning, you're winning three units. So that is an excellent situation. You're winning half the hands, but you're winning money. Now, by the way, for an up as you win better in that game, the up as you win better is going to get absolutely killed in that game. He's gonna lose his shirt in that game. It's gonna win after hands and lose his shirt. Now, in my book, literally in my book, if you lose, if you win after hands and lose your shirt, you're doing something really stupid. Okay, I had a guy call me the other night who's who was just going crazy saying that NBJ doesn't work and all this stuff, who was winning half the hands and losing his shirt. Obviously, the guy is not selecting the right progression. But when I got right down to it, he wasn't even using negative progressions, and that was his whole, that was his entire problem. Okay, if you're winning that that bet, and you'll find, see, the game is very cyclical. So you'll find situations where you lose win, lose win, lose win. Go go right through the shoe, keep going right through the next shoe, and every now and then it'll kilter off of that a little bit, but then right back to it. Win lose, when lose, when lose. If you're doing that, drop this bet. Just play one four. Drop this bet. Because if you do make it, you're betting your highest bet on the hand that you usually lose. Okay? And if you drop the bet, your whole risk is only five chips. Alright? That makes it the best game you can possibly get into. Absolutely, the number one game. This is the second best situation that you can get into. But win-lose, win-lose is the best situation you can get into. You're going to you're going to kill them at virtually no risk. Just drop this bet right off of the progression. Okay, now, if you're playing the sixth bet a lot, in a good game, you don't play the sixth bet that often. You'll find entire shoes go by without playing the sixth bet. Sometimes a couple shoes go by without playing the sixth bet. But if you're sitting in the game and you're saying to yourself, geez, here I am playing the sixth bet again, okay, you're in a dangerous game, first off. Okay? You're in a dangerous game. But what you do in this case, if you're playing this all the time, change your progression to 1-1-4. Okay, now you're making your highest bet on the hand that you're winning most often. And the game is cyclical. If you're winning every third hand, they can continue on and on and on and on. Just change your progression to the 1-1-4. Okay, you've reduced your risk to six units. And what's going to happen is out of every three hands, it's not the greatest situation, but it's not a situation that you would walk away from. Out of every three hands, you're going to lose two and win four. So you're going to, the bottom line is you're going to win two chips every three hands. Not bad at all. Not bad performance at all. So you have to, you know, you have to assess the situation in each game. What's happening in this game, and how should I react to it? And it isn't just in the card play, it's also in the betting. In a normal game, you're going to win, you're going to win about half of these, okay? And out of the remaining half, you're going to win about half of these. And now the remaining half, you're going to win about half of these, and now the remaining half you're going to lose. Okay? And that's the way it works out. But if the game is favoring one of those bets more than the other two, change your progression. Change it to, according to what the game is favoring. If you're winning the first bet a lot, go to a two-three-four. If you're winning the second bet very, very often, just go to a one-four. And if you're winning the third bet, go to a one-one four. Okay? And you can make, you're making the best out of the situation at hand. You're reacting to the best out of the situation at hand. It's just like in your card play. If you're finding in the game that you're playing, every time I hit 16, I break. Stop hitting 16 in that game. Okay? You have to react to the information at hand. Reaction is. Reaction is the way to play blackjack. Reacting to what's going on in that game is the way to play. And that's why I say, even for the people that are still card counting, they can never achieve that. They can never react to things that are happening in the game because they don't have time to think about those things. They don't have time to note those things. But when you're sitting back, when you're sitting back playing NBJ, you have a lot of free time compared to the card counter. You can sit there and you can watch what's happening in this in that game. You can watch how is my betting strategy working? Even when you're winning, you know, a lot of times you say, Well, I'm winning, so I'm not going to change anything. Don't look at it that way. When you're winning, say, geez, how can I improve? How can I improve myself in this game? And those are the kinds of things that you want to do. Okay. Just take a minute. Take a five minute, ten minutes? Gotta take a three-quarter cigarette break. A little bit and just talk about a lot of how many people are here today that were not here yesterday? Oh, quite a few. Okay. Some of it, some of what happened this morning may be just a little bit confusing to you because some of it was carryover from yesterday, and some of the questions were questions that uh had already been asked. So that confused me a little bit. Let's go right back to the beginning and uh talk about NBJ now as as a winning system.

SPEAKER_06 15:34

In this next uh part of the lecture, E. Clifton Davis discusses the uh differences between the uh old card counting and basic strategy methods and the new uh NBJ uh advantages uh that we have uh basing his discussion on some articles that uh were published uh in uh uh certain gambling uh publications by uh uh authors uh who still continue to uh believe in the traditional card counting uh random shuffle theory of blackjack. I have edited this out uh because uh it doesn't uh contribute anything to the basic discussion, the major discussions that you'll hear on this tape uh about uh uh how to most effectively use your NBJ methodology. We'll pick up uh Alice again after this discussion concluded.

SPEAKER_05 16:36

That's what NBJ is all about. It's to give us a system that gives us a practical win rate, a win rate that means something. No, you can't go in and win every game. No, you can't go in and win every table. There's work to it, there's study involved. I mean, people have called me that read their manual on the way to Las Vegas in the airplane and wondered why they couldn't do it right when they got here. It takes study, it takes effort. There are people that have read their manual 25 times and told me they're still picking up something new out of it every time they read it. It takes practice in the casino and it takes practice at home. It's a chore to learn NBJ. It's not the hardest thing in the world to do, but it is a chore, it's not something that you can take for granted. But when you do learn it, yes, you can you can achieve spectacular win rates when compared to the kind of win rates that these guys boast about. And and a thousand dollars an hour in a type one game is not anything out of the ordinary. Usually, when we do these types of seminars, I go out and and play afterwards with a bunch of people from the seminars. And in the last three seminars, I played at the rate of a thousand dollars an hour, playing one, three, four in most of those games, not even ever even achieving getting up to the one, four, or six. $1,000 an hour is not a difficult thing uh to achieve. Does that mean, let's see, you're gonna say, well, I'm gonna be there for eight hours, so I'm gonna win eight thousand? Doesn't work that way because you have to find that game. I don't win half of the games that I play, I win less than half of the games I play. Now, some some of our my my own students have a better win ratio than that. It's because they spend more time looking for good games than I do, or it's because they play Las Vegas and I play Atlantic City. Las Vegas is easier than Atlantic City, in spite of what people have said. Las Vegas is easier than Atlantic City. If you want to see tough cards, go to Minnesota or go to Atlantic City. They're tough. I mean, conditions here are are are really easy compared to those places. Even in the Bahamas, they're tougher than than here. But anybody that wants to do it, wants to study it, wants to put in the devotion that it takes, will find themselves achieving those kinds of win rates. Let's talk about another little problem that can occur that crops up and will happen to at least half of the players in this room. People have a tendency, a lot of the people that we have have had a tendency to lose when they play cards before they study NBJ. A big tendency to lose. Not a tendency to lose big, but a big tendency to lose. And when they win with NBJ, first base or third base system, what they tend to do as soon as they see money on the table, this is a new event for them. There they there's chips on the table that aren't their chips. They actually won money. Okay? They have a tendency to say, oh, geez, I'm ahead. I don't want to lose that money, and they take that money and they put it in their pocket and they go look for another game. They've just gotten out of a winning game to go look for a losing game. They're playing exactly backwards from what you should be doing. If you're winning the game, you gotta stay there. If you're losing the game, you gotta leave. Okay? Simplest thing in the world. It's like buy high, sell low. Simplest thing in the world until you try to do it. Okay, it's a difficult thing to do. But when you're winning the game, you've got to stay in those games. There aren't that many winning games. You can't give up in those games. Stay when you're winning the game, see your staff loss through. Not when you first get in the game, but when you're in the game, see your staff lost through. Case in point with Bill. Bill couldn't sleep last night. Bill, pay attention, we're talking about you. Bill? Bill, okay.

SPEAKER_01 21:20

I I hear you.

SPEAKER_05 21:22

Bill couldn't sleep last night. Okay. And Bill's very, very new to NBJ. Couldn't sleep last night, so Bill went out to play some cards. At what time did you go out, Bill?

SPEAKER_06 21:33

It was about four o'clock.

SPEAKER_05 21:35

Four o'clock, and found a first base game?

SPEAKER_01 21:38

And trying.

SPEAKER_05 21:39

And did what? Give somebody get Bill a microphone. Here's one right. Bill, tell us what happened last night, four o'clock.

SPEAKER_01 21:46

Well, they only had about four tables, and uh it was the usual crowd for that early in the morning. And uh I played first base and I won three and a half piles. And then things went bad and I lost one and a half, hit the stop loss, and I quit. So I won 24 chips.

SPEAKER_05 22:08

Okay, he won. Bill won 24 units. See, Bill, see how he's talking there? He says, geez, everything everything went bad. I won 24 units. Everything went bad. Do those two things go together? Everything went bad. I won 24 units. You were there for how long, Bill?

SPEAKER_01 22:25

About 45 minutes.

SPEAKER_05 22:26

Arnold Snyder can't do that. By his own admission, in the book, he can't do that. Okay? He only wins $45 an hour. And he probably exaggerates about that. Bill's playing first base. Now I was kind of watching Bill yesterday at a CNC saying, no, this guy is really skeptical here. Goes out, wins his wins is wins his first trip out. No problem at all, right? He's you're supposed to hit your stop loss. What the only thing that that Bill isn't quite seeing is you're going to hit your stop loss. I tell you to hit your stop loss. I don't even look at those chips that are in the stop loss pile. I don't even look at them as mine. I look them in, I look at them as the casinos. That way you're not overly concerned about losing them because they're not yours to begin with. The chips that you're captured, those are your chips. The chips that are in the stop loss, up to the stop loss, those chips belong to the game. Those are your that's your risk money. You can't win money without risking money. Okay? That's your risk money. So don't worry about losing that. What you're trying to do is you're trying to play for the longest time possible. That's what you're trying to do. You're trying to stay in the game. That's your objective. Stay in the game without hitting your stop loss. Okay? Now Joe went three piles, or Bill Rather went three piles and then hit his stop loss, so he backed up a little bit. That's exactly what is supposed to happen. That's how the system works. It's because we have that, and back up a little, that we can achieve much higher hourly win rates than people like Arnold Snyder and their card counting and their basic strategy play. It's exactly what's supposed to happen. If you work it out and you just play the system through, what you're trying to do is get three piles so that you can go ahead and double your rate the way that we uh showed you yesterday, and I I keep forgetting there's people here today that weren't here yesterday, so let me quickly run through that. How do you be aggressive in a game? How do you go for the juggler in a game? Because not being aggressive in the games that you should be aggressive in is just as bad as not getting out of games that you should be getting out of. It's just the other side of the same mistake. This is your buy-in pile of 12. When you have won three piles, that's when you double your stakes. When you have won three piles, okay? When you have three piles of their money, that's when you double your stakes. Now, what you want to, if you're playing the one four, six, and by the way, if that happens, when that happens, you definitely should be playing the one four-six. You can't test the water through three piles. Okay. You tested the water here. Okay, now you're playing the game. You've won three piles. When you're you have to time this right. We call it a transition. You do it on the four-bet. When you win the four-bet after winning three piles, that's when you make your move. And what you're going to do is you're going to double your bet, but you're going to do it in two increments. So you go from one, four, six to two, six, eight. And as soon as you win the sixth bet, you're going to two eight twelve. Sometimes you can do it in just two plays. Sometimes it'll take more than that. Now, why did we do this? Because I mentioned yesterday that the time you are at most risk is when you have exactly a pile of twelve, because that's when you have the least amount of chips and your stop loss. That's when it's easiest for the casino to knock you out of the game. Okay. You're also at increased risk when you double your bet. You're at you are at the riskiest you can get at in a game. There is there is no time in the game that's more risky than that. So we do it in two increments. So that if you should lose, and you know, as as luck has it, that's going to happen every now and then. And there's a reason for that. You've been winning a lot. That's why you're saying, geez, I'm winning so much. I'm going to double the stakes now. Alright? But remember that you can't win forever. Sooner or later you're going to lose. So that's why when you double the bet, sometimes you're going to lose when you do that. If you're just losing less, you're just losing less chips. You just pulled in four chips. You have four chips right there. That's a good time to go to the two, six, eight. When you've just won six, this six chips, that's a good time to switch over to the two eight twelve. And you go on with the two eight twelve until you achieve another three piles. When you double the stakes, by the way, you double the size of the pile. You go from twelve in the pile to twenty-four in the pile. You want the same ratio in your piles as your batch. You want to maintain that ratio. So we go to twenty-four. As soon as we win three piles there, we double the stakes again. Now, when you double the stakes, you'll find that you're in black chips, so you're back to one, four, six in black chips. See, it's just as bad to sit around and win hour after hour without raising the bet as it is to stay in a game that you're not winning, that you should have got out of. It's the same mistake, it's just opposite sides of the same mistake. You have to jump on opportunity when opportunity presents itself. Let's just go over one other thing that we talked about yesterday that's very, very important. I said a minute ago that the whole goal that you have once once you get into the game is to stay in the game. It's to stay in the game without hitting your stop loss. So the longer you're in the game, the more money you're going to win. So you want to take precautions against the casino being able to knock you out of that game. So I said a minute ago that when you have 12 chips, you are at your riskiest because now you're going to make a capture right there. So all you have in your stop loss is 12 chips. At that point, I always switch from a 146 to a 134. If I happen to make the pile exactly, which happens quite often, I'll switch to a 1-3-4. The reason I switch to the 1-3-4 is that adds up to 8 chips. If I lose the 1-3-4, I still have four chips left before my stop loss. Four chips is the least amount of chips I can have to make a negative progression. I can play a 1-1-2. Okay? If I play the 1-4-6, I can get knocked out of the game in four plays. I can lose the one, four, six, that's 11 chips. I've only got one left. I can play that chip and lose it, or I can play that chip and win it, then play the two chips and lose. Okay? So you want to have six plays in your stop loss. And the way to do that is just at this point switch to one, three, four. Okay? Even if you lose it, you've got a whole nother progression to play. And I'll tell you that progression will save your fanny very, very often the fact that you have two progressions in there to play. The other little trick, I mentioned it in the manual, but I'll mention it here again because it re it it uh it's relative to the same thing, is when you do get down to one chip, let's say that you did make play the one, four, six there. Now you've only got one chip left in your stop loss. What I do in those situations, if I've been in the game for a while, I don't just sit there and say, well, this game is bad, I lost three in a row. If you get out of every game that you lose three in a row, you're not gonna play blackjack in this world. Okay? Every game that you're in, you're gonna lose three in a row, every now and then. Alright. You're down to one chip. You can say, Well, I'll take that chip and I'll put it in my pocket. But you've already won piles of chips. You're in a good game. So take that chip and bet it. Now, if you lose, then you're out. You've hit your stop loss. But if you win, now you got two chips. But two chips isn't enough to play a progression. So you let it ride and you play the two chips. If you lose, you're out of the game. But if you win, now you got four chips, you got enough to play a progression. You're right back in the game again. You can start with a one-one two, build right back up again till you get to your one, four, six, and continue on. I have been down to one chip and stayed in the game for hours after that. Many, many times. Many, many times. Yet one ship has saved my fanny being able to let it ride and double that bet and get back to four chips. Many, many times. Okay, questions.

SPEAKER_01 32:25

You wind up exactly at 12.

SPEAKER_05 32:27

Do you always go to the one four? 134, yes. I do. I do.

SPEAKER_07 32:33

No matter which part.

SPEAKER_04 32:37

On that progression that you have there, um the one three-four I see, and I see the eight behind it. How does that figure in on that?

SPEAKER_05 32:45

That's just the total of one, three, and four. Okay. Sorry.

SPEAKER_07 32:52

I find I found myself often in a game where I'm dropping down to one, two, three, or one, one, two, and then get stuck there.

SPEAKER_05 33:00

And he can't climb back out. Right. Yeah, that can happen. Once you once you drop down, you have this kind of an agonizing trip back up to the one, four, six. However, if you don't make it, you should have got out of that game anyway. It's a lot better to to get knocked out of the game when you're playing 1-1-2 or 1-2-3 than to get knocked out on an 11-chip progression. Okay.

SPEAKER_07 33:24

But I'm not knocked out, so I don't know whether I'm wasting my time. But I'm in a game now.

SPEAKER_05 33:29

Struggle and try to get back. Try to get back to the game was good. Now it could be that the game has turned bad and you're not going to make it back. In that case, just get out on a win. Decide, geez, this is really getting to be a grind now. All of a sudden I can't win as many hands as I was winning before. You're saying I you're thinking about getting out of the game. Anytime you're thinking about getting out of the game, get out on a win. Okay, other questions.

SPEAKER_07 34:00

Four minutes to say.

SPEAKER_05 34:02

Quick question.

SPEAKER_02 34:05

You started with your 12 chips and you worked up to about 10 wins, 10 chips ahead. And then you go through one of those, you lose your 146 series. Now you're back to 11 chips.

SPEAKER_05 34:16

Would you quit or I I usually do. What he's what the question is here's your buy-in right here, your buy-in pile, and you're you're playing the game, and it's a fairly decent game, at least at first, and you get up to about here, and you can't finish off the pile. Sometimes you'll get up to there several times and you can't finish off the pile, and you get knocked back down again. I just don't stay in those games. You can get just get out of those games. You can find you can find better things to do with your time, like sleep or whatever, than stay in that kind of a game. That's a it's a grind game. Like I say, the the games, average good games, not terrific games, not home run games, but average good games in four or in, I'm sorry, six and eight deck, you should be averaging about one pile per shoe. Every now and then you're gonna find it's possible to actually make two piles in a shoe, playing one, four, six with quarter chips, it's or or with any color chips. It's actually to make, it's you can make two piles in a shoe, and that'll happen to you every now and then. Remember that I said what's going to happen over the in a in a good game on the average is that you're going to play uh six uh shoes per hour, and hopefully, in the six shoes per hour, in a decent game, you can plan on winning win at the rate of a thousand dollars an hour. And the way we're doing that is we're not winning every hand, we're not winning every progression, and so forth to do that. In a normal situation, out of the six shoes that are played per hour, and four of them, I'm saying winning at the rate of a thousand dollars, four of them calls for, and four of them, you won't lose a progression. In the fifth one, you'll lose one progression, and in the sixth one, you lose two progressions. So you're losing progressions at the rate of three an hour. If you're losing three progressions an hour with green chips, you're gonna win a thousand dollars an hour.

SPEAKER_06 36:40

On that positive note, uh let's end off on this uh tape one, side two, and continue this discussion on the next tape, which is tape two, side one.