SPEAKER_03 0:05

This is NBJ the weekend clash on February one and two in Las Vegas. This is K3 side one.

SPEAKER_04 0:18

Of course you're just gonna be making minimum tax, obviously. But then at the end, the rest of the table split the weddings. Because we found that you can break the dealer a lot. Uh playing at quarter uh was it quarter chips they were playing before? They picked up six thousand units, according to uh six thousand dollars. I'm sorry, six thousand units. Six thousand dollars in one game playing with the sacrifice player game. Do you remember how long that particular game went on? Yeah, it was every $2500. Yeah. It was one game, yeah, and another game was $6,000, but they lasted longer. I think they went on for like an hour or something. 45 minutes, yeah. So it is it is very effective. I mean that's not six thousand dollars per player, but six thousand dollars for the team that they would have to split. And I think it was like 45 minutes or an hour that they had that they that they had to talk. Altogether we played five uh we played six games with this type of strategy, and we won five out of the six, which I thought was uh pretty encouraging result. Six six six sessions. Okay. Sometimes those games lasted for an hour, you know. Okay, let's let's talk about it. Can I ask a question on that?

SPEAKER_03 1:47

Sure. What's the stop loss for team play?

SPEAKER_04 1:49

Ah, that's that's a little tough because the I'm glad you asked that question because I I I shouldn't talk about that and I forgot about it. One of the problems with team play is what do you do if one's losing and the other three are winning? And I think that the team needs to settle this question amongst themselves. Now, if two are losing, it's a good time to to quit, okay? But suppose three are winning and one is losing. I think that the best thing to do in that situation is either for the losing player to go to minimum bets or to get out of the game and have one of the other players uh play his hand at minimum bet. It amounts to the same thing, okay? But then you need to have an agreement afterwards on what you're gonna do about that. You're either gonna do nothing about it and the guy's going to accept that loss, or you you you will uh split the money evenly, just as if he were a sacrifice player, because essentially he's acting as a sacrifice player. His job is to keep the game up to the right number of players. Many, many times, you know, when you're dealing with five players a team play, and it goes to the four, the game will go to hell, or it goes up to six, the game will go to hell. So I love the rule, by the way, the new rule that they're coming out with around several of the casinos that says that you can't get in in the middle of the shoe. Because it does keep the number of players constant throughout the shoe, which helps us in NBJ an awful lot. Okay, so that's essentially what we're doing. That's our big advantage, other than we're breaking the dealer a lot, is that we're keeping the number of players consistent and we're keeping it at the optimum number of players. Now, one of the things that you might try in the team play is when if five players is not working out, you might just drop it down to four players, which obviously is easy to do. You can control it at four players just as easy as you can control it at five players. Uh but you need to drop you need to drop out uh I've forgotten just how to do that. We do need to drop out a player. Well, when you got it at four players, I don't think that we can uh stop other players from getting in, but you can play with that number. What is the optimum number of players, four players or five players, and play accordingly. We have, for instance, had when we weren't controlling the number of players in the game in a high-stakes game that don't tend to fill up, we've had a player sit there and just play or not play to keep the number of players constant in the in the game. Because that can be an advantage.

SPEAKER_03 4:40

We uh move into the three o'clock, Alice. You're gonna go over the assignment uh as well for going through the game type transmission. Good. Uh put it right on tape so our home listeners can hear what we're doing uh tonight.

SPEAKER_04 4:57

Jerry and I came up with an assignment. You know, the like when we had the June seminar here, the assignment uh during the seminar was to go out and see how many low rounds you could count in a row because people were a little bit skeptical that there would be more low rounds in a row than high rounds uh in a row, or that there would be more low rounds, period, than high rounds. And so that's what we wanted to look at is low rounds versus high rounds, and we proved uh I think we had six uh we had 45 people doing that. And we we all people came back and and all of them easily found more low rounds and high rounds, and it was in the our number of two to one worked out worked out pretty good. So that was some of the verification that we we have in there. Uh and some of you will see the humor in this, but what I would like you to do tonight is see how many type 1 uh games that you can find and recognize what a type 1 game is. A type 1 game is a game that has no more than two low rounds in a row in it. That's the only qualification for a type round, a type 1 game. It has no more than two low rounds in a row. Low tens ratio rounds in a row. And I would like you to see uh try to get some idea of percentage-wise. What we're what we're looking to do is really verify our percentage of type one games uh in Las Vegas. Yes.

SPEAKER_06 6:38

Well, if we see one, should we play?

SPEAKER_04 6:43

No, you have to go and look for more. This may not work, Jerry. No, if you see one, call me. First, let's get a show of hands of uh anyone who might have remembered the casino assignment last night. Okay. Now, uh let's do it this way. In your search for type 1 games, how many people found less than 10% type 1 games? Okay, how many people found less than 10% type 1 or 2 games? Okay, so in other words, if it wasn't a type 1, it was a type, it was a type 2. How many people found type 3 games? 4? Okay. Five and six. Okay, so I would guess that we could easily say that the majority of games were type 1 and 2. Is there anyone that would disagree with that from their search last night?

unknown 8:12

That are?

SPEAKER_04 8:13

Most of the games are type 1 or 2.

SPEAKER_03 8:17

Who would agree with that?

SPEAKER_04 8:18

You would not agree with that. What would you say they are?

SPEAKER_05 8:21

I got about 10.

SPEAKER_04 8:22

Well, let's do it a different way. Uh how many would would agree that most of the games are type 1 or 2?

SPEAKER_02 8:29

That we saw.

SPEAKER_04 8:30

Yeah. Okay, how many would not agree with that? Okay. Now let's take the first group, type 1, 2, and 3, which is up as you lose, versus 4, 5, and 6, which is up as you win. How many found most of the games to be in the first group, the up as you lose group? Okay, how many found most of the games to be in the up as you win group? About even. Okay, you people that just raised your hands, the casinos that you were playing in, were they crowded? Just give me a verbal. Okay. Okay, we have most almost all yeses and and one no. Where were you playing?

SPEAKER_05 9:11

I played at uh Caesars and Mirage and uh saying those more crowded here. I didn't say uh tables were about half old.

SPEAKER_04 9:25

And you were finding type four, five, and six games there? Yeah. You were seeing more than four low ratio rounds in a row?

SPEAKER_01 9:33

Yeah. Not not every time, but I was saying.

SPEAKER_04 9:37

Yeah. Okay. Not in every game, but you did see some. Not in every game, but you did see some. The reason I ask is I at at uh the Sands last night, I didn't see any games at all in the second category, or the games that came really close to it. Uh, they were almost all in the in the first category, but the difference is it was very uncrowded. There was a lot, and this is late, this is like after midnight. Well what'll happen is uh as the casino gets less and less crowded, or as the tables get less and less crowded, the games will move up in game type number for the simple reason that a certain number of low cards will cover more rounds with three people playing than it will with five people playing. But I don't I don't know. I I saw in almost uh all the games that I saw there were game types one and two. I did see one game type three, but it only became a game type three because everybody went home and there was only three people playing. So I don't really count that as a you know as a viable thing. I'm talking about under normal casino conditions. In other words, what is that shuffle and that number of decks, what game type is is it producing? And from what I saw where I was, it was still majority group one, game type one, two, or three. I saw very very few games that had more than four low ratio rounds in a row, unless unless all the people happened to go home or uh or uh jump out of the out of that game. Of course, if you only got one player playing, it's got to be a game type six. Now of of the people that that are saw most games as off as you win games, how many people saw off as you win game with more than five players in them? Okay, with more than with more than four players, a couple, with more than uh three players, a couple. So I take it that most of these games had very few players in them, is that right? So you probably saw them really pretty late at night, was it?

SPEAKER_03 11:54

11 uh for about an hour and a half around 10 to 11.30.

SPEAKER_04 12:00

So here's what I suspect is is going on. When I was here a year ago, the casinos were a heck of a lot more uh crowded than than what I saw uh last night, and I think that uh anytime the casinos become uncrowded for whatever reason, time of the year or whatever, that the the number of uh game type 1s is going to decrease. Uh it's going to fluctuate through the year. It does up in uh it does up in Atlantic City as well. Uh although we have the opposite problem there. We have the sales crowded all the time, the tables are crowded all the time, so we we find very few game type game type 1s. Uh maybe to me it seems like so many, because I'm contrasting it to Atlantic City where I normally play, where they're very difficult to find. But I had no problem finding game type 1s at all. Did anybody have any trouble finding any game type 1s? Okay, so everybody could find one. So if you if you're if your goal was to play game type 1, you could find one. Maybe our I think I in the manual I said 35% uh here, I can't remember, game type 1s. And maybe it's maybe it's lower than that right now. But at least there's plenty of game type 1s, and there's plenty of room in the game type 1s to get in them, so I don't see where that makes a whole lot of difference as long as we can find these games and and uh and get in them.

SPEAKER_03 13:34

Up here in front, John.

SPEAKER_00 13:42

I'm gonna back up to yesterday. Uh John gave us a casino session and we ended at the flamingo. And uh I was telling Alice about this this morning after the casino session, and we all left at about seven o'clock. Just before we left that session, we had all watched and scoped out a table that had a fellow dealing uh that looked like a pretty good game. There were three or four people there, and then it just suddenly dissolved, and so we went away, discussed it, left, broke up. I went back in to eat, and there was a fellow here, Bob, do you remember his name? One of the California guys.

SPEAKER_01 14:17

One of our players.

SPEAKER_00 14:18

Yes, one of our players who was here the day before, in the very first day on Friday. And when I went back through the casino, he was sitting there uh playing head to head with this guy because of course everybody else at the table had left. Uh because their game had been wiped out, and our guy was sitting there and it was the game was the fastest game I've ever seen. I've never seen the cards come that fast. And he was playing one to five units, and he was betting up with that one that one piece of information that Ellis gave us that day about gee, if you're do a 10 and you're playing heads up, raise your bet after you see that 10. And he walked away uh with he did this with three different tables. He told me because I watched him and then I talked to him afterwards, and he walked away with five hundred dollars from each of those tables that day, playing heads up. It was fast, it was quick, and it was over.

SPEAKER_03 15:07

Five to twenty-five, friend?

SPEAKER_00 15:08

Yeah.

SPEAKER_03 15:09

Okay, good.

SPEAKER_00 15:10

And he didn't stay long. Alice said, you know, don't stay through what was once two one and a half, two or something like that. And that's about as long as he stayed. Now when the thing just started to slow down, you know, like he just got out, and and that was it. I don't know what he did after that.

SPEAKER_03 15:24

I saw him still wandering around, but this was the first base strategy, and uh I mean but he was head to head. Yeah, for head to head, fine. Just a flamenco. Any other uh good report any other reports uh that we haven't covered? Any other casinos? Work?

SPEAKER_02 15:41

Well, no, it's just the s uh reinforcing that one. Uh uh Bob was playing uh first place and we were watching him, and Eric was standing in the middle and he saw the tents running the same way and he just jumped in. What was it, once or twice, Eric? Twice, and the same thing occurred, bang, bang, and that's it. Done and out.

SPEAKER_03 15:57

Okay. Okay, good enough. I'll uh get back to uh Alice and the uh review.

SPEAKER_04 16:05

Okay, I'd ask Andy to uh relate that game uh to you for the people that uh were not here Friday we talked about had to had to play, but I want to talk to that about that briefly again while that game is fresh in your mind before we get into the primary indicator. Uh but we have discovered, and uh the the reasons for it are are pretty obvious when you think about it, that the first base system uh simply uh reacting to uh the first base systems works extremely well in head-to-head play, uh playing one hand against the dealer's uh the dealer's hand. And all we're reacting to, you can't you can't really go by high tens ratio because you're not looking at enough cards, all we're at reacting to is whenever the card, the last card in the prior round, uh was a ten, uh you increase your bet and you play this five to one. Whenever uh it was not a ten or a high ace or a nine, you can react to those. Uh you play your low bet. And see, the reason it works so well is in a a normal game when you're playing the first base system uh is a problem that we had here last night. You get your first ten, but several cards are going to go down the tubes before you get your second card. So uh there's gonna be certainly a certain percentage of the time that you're gonna get a low card with the ten. However, when you're playing head-to-head, there aren't any any cards between your first card and your second card except the dealer's one card. So you're gonna, when you get the first ten, you're gonna get the second ten a much higher percentage of the time in head-to-head play. Now, what happens is you are gonna push a lot playing this, playing that uh system against the dealer, but you just gotta think in terms of uh pushes make no difference. Pushes maybe they waste a little time, but they make no difference. So it is a very viable system. Now, the reason we we caution you not to play uh too many shoes is that when you play head to head, you work just like a filtering system and you will uncl the cards very, very quickly. So your advantage will dissipate over two or three shoes. Now we suggest when you play head to head in this manner that you start out playing dealer's strategy because you're going to look at a tremendous amount of clumping. Uh you know, clumping if if the game was clumped with five or six players, when you play it with two players, it's going to seem extremely clumped. You may have seven, eight, ten uh high rounds in a row followed by that many low rounds. So it it very much favors dealer strategy. But you will find that as you play the game to uh one or two or three shoes, that the favor uh the favorability of dealer strategy will also dissipate because you're filtering the cards into a random situation. And you go from dealer strategy right back down to variable strategy as you stay in the game. So we recommend that you don't stay in those games too long, maybe uh uh two or three, two or three shoes if if things are going well, but watch for the game to uh to turn sour on you uh as it goes into a random condition. And by the way, after someone has played uh head-to-head, remember that the cards are going to be random. So for you people that count, now if you can get a game going at that table, you're going to be playing with random cards for for a few shoes. So it makes a good counters game for a while. Okay, any question on uh head-to-head play?

SPEAKER_05 20:04

Okay, then let's get right into the one question, I think. Um it sounds to me when you're playing head-to-head like that. Often my experience is that the players will follow you into the game. So if you can get a shoe or two done head to head, then you say you're randomizing the shoe, then players enter. If you're sitting at the third base position, you're probably now into a type one or two game players. That's right, yeah. So change your strategy when they enter. Yeah.

SPEAKER_04 20:38

By the way, one little trick, uh maybe Matt Dolphin could explain why this works. I certainly don't know, but you're fine if you're playing head-to-head and and you want to uh be the only one in the game, that if you stand up, if you stand up and just play the game standing up, there's there's much uh less chance of other people getting in the game with you than if you sit down. Now what why that is, I don't know, but it's it's just one of human nature uh. They figure you wanna play alone, yeah.

SPEAKER_06 21:11

They figure you want to leave and they don't want to play head to head.

SPEAKER_04 21:15

Yeah, yeah, yeah. But that works if if uh if you want to if you want to try that. I'm looking for an opinion or comment on instead of dealer has a nation, you getting 21. Should you take even money or gamble on the bottom card? You get a blackjack, you mean? I am a blackjack, dealer has an A sub. Yeah. Uh that's in your manual. The answer is you take the even money. You're you're mathematically, if everything was random, you'd be a little bit of money behind by taking the even money. But when you consider it. The fact now that you have a 10, particularly if you're at third base, that you have a 10 and an ace. And the ace may be a high current as well. And the dealer has an ace. That's the mathematical reason. But there's a much stronger statistical reason. I'm sure that each of you who were playing 1-4-6 have had situations maybe on the one-bet or the four-bet where you hit wish you had done something a little differently and you would have won those bets. Now you end up playing the sixth bet because of something, maybe it was, maybe it was a 50-50 choice and you just chose the wrong way, but now you find yourself playing the sixth bet because of a decision that you made back on the one bet or decision that you made on the four-bat. Okay, you forced yourself into the sixth bet, and you lose the sixth bet. Now you've lost the whole progression based on something that happened back on the one bet. Okay, so when whenever you take even money, it's a sure thing. You're a sure winner. Okay, there's only you can lose that bat. Alright, now you see what I'm getting at. If you don't take even money, you can very easily end up in a situation where you're losing a whole progression because of that decision to have to take even money. So sometimes that decision is going to cost you eleven chips. And when it does, you will always take even money again for the rest of your life.

SPEAKER_06 23:54

One thing that I noticed never playing insurance before in my life that you have to get your butt out there quick. They just boom, they boom it by. And you get very strange reactions with low hands and and but yeah, you have to get that butt out quick because I never played insurance before.

SPEAKER_05 24:12

Speak up yes, I'll take insurance.

SPEAKER_04 24:15

Yeah, I just say wait, you know. And by the way, if if they don't give you enough time when you put up your insurance about late, they will usually ac accept it. If if it's their fault, they will usually accept not all the time, they'll count on it, but they usually they will. Oh, and by the way, here in uh in in uh Las Vegas, you don't have to have the money exact. Like, you know, if let's say you're betting quarters, you want insurance, just throw a quarter up there, you know, and they'll keep running going and they'll change it when they get around to you.

SPEAKER_01 24:53

Because you make them sometimes two players against the dealer? Flat like one player, uh you think one of the first turn the mic on.

SPEAKER_03 25:12

Uh what about uh playing uh two players against the dealer?

SPEAKER_04 25:16

Yeah, two players against the dealer, or one player could play two or three hands uh against the dealer. It it it is my experience that if you're going to play head to head, you're better off playing head-to-head just those two hands. The next best game is with with four uh players, particularly with six decks. Uh three-player games and two-player games uh I've not found to be very, very favorable. Um up in Atlantic City where you're playing with eight decks, or here when you're playing with eight decks, sometimes you can get away with three players, but when you get below four players, uh I haven't found the games to be very good. The the reason that we suggest the head to hand with two players is it maximizes your advantage with one player. As you add more players, you're you're stealing that advantage away from you. Now instead of one card between your first and second carriage, there's two cards or three cards between your first and second card, and it just dilutes your advantage. So we say one player or go all the way to four. One, four, five, or six. Okay, any other questions before we get into the primary indicator? I would like you to do this uh while I'm talking about the the primary indicator. Uh I would like you to to think of a topic, not just a question, but a topic that you would like to hear discussed, whether regard whether it be insurance or or what have you. You know, it's very difficult for me, Stan, what general topic you may be having trouble with, and so if we had the opportunity, we can open up the discussion to a topic of your preference rather than mine, and we'll just vote on uh what what topic, you know, a show of hands of what topic you would like to hear about. Okay, now we'll go into the the primary indicator uh situation. Uh I I think the best way the to look at it, or did you want to do a little break first before we do that?

SPEAKER_03 27:29

Or um five minutes. Well, let's go let's start with about 15 minutes. Yeah, during during the break, I was uh talking with a few of you about the uh question that uh Ellis posed, and this is just a partial list, but give you something to think about. Uh these are the the topics that uh that we've got uh uh so far that we may uh or that we can get to to discuss given the amount of time surrender over under, which we discussed on Friday. I'd I'd like to see that uh mentioned again. Um I thought the uh uh the the the strategy that you uh Alice uh related to that is simple and elegant and effective. Uh no whole card. We do have a few Canadian friends here that we should at least comment on the approach when you don't have a whole card. In vacationers, right. Uh double on twelve. Uh I won't say who brought that up. Uh they said don't uh mention my name, uh, but still, uh, you know, if you've got a um a 12 and low cards are running and a stiff end, uh we'll get we'll get Alice's comment on that. Uh review first base game types which we've covered this before. Third base, which game types best, and then the pr the the attitudes and training and uh characteristics and uh program for uh professional play. So this is a partial list, and we'll get a few more from you a little uh later as we get into some of these topics.

SPEAKER_06 29:02

Okay, oh well, I'd like to make one observation.

SPEAKER_01 29:11

I used to be as tall as Jerry, and I shrunk. And so table selection for me is very difficult. I think if you go in, all these people are saying they're going to casinos, they don't see any winning activities, they're leaving. If I did that, I'd never play the damn game. Uh, I think that if you see no winning activity and they're playing basic strategy, you got a damn good place to sit down and play and start winning. Now I know it goes against target, but I can't use target either. But I I go in like this the man in the phone conversation with you did. I think you're missing an awful lot of good tables by just looking for a winning activity because you're there and you can do better than that, and you can win from that table.

SPEAKER_06 29:50

Good point. Good point.

SPEAKER_04 29:53

Uh that that is a very good point. I think I mentioned uh that briefly in the in the in the manual, at least my personal preference is is to play more games and maintain a lower game one ratio versus game loss ratio. Uh and I think I threw some numbers in the manual that indicate that that can very often be to your advantage by the by the end of the day. Uh, if you only play three games during the day and you win two out of three, you're liable to find yourself, and that's a very, very good win ratio, two out of three. But I'm going to beat you that I'm going to win more money than you do with a 50% game one ratio for the simple reason that I I played more more games. Uh I do search, like I mentioned yesterday, you go all over the place, but I don't spend a lot of time in it. My my objective is to to get in a game, and uh I may be in the game uh I I remember in Atlantic City I was playing uh with Keith one night, not long ago, and uh we walked into the sands, and Keith said, I gotta hit the John. It was on it's on the way to the casino from the front door, and I said, uh, okay, I'll meet you on the floor. I'm not gonna wait for him. And by the time he was he got to the floor, I was already $700 ahead in the game that I was playing first base at. And uh Keith jumped in the same game, played over my shoulder, uh, just topped off all of my high bets with a a quarter, and uh and and won a considerable amount of money. In fact, he was behind going in and he was ahead coming out of that game, just topping off my bets with a quarter, just my high bets in the first base uh strategy. And we made an absolute killing. We went uh four shoes in that game without ever losing the a high bet. Uh or you could spend the time in in the John or searching for tables. I mean, it's it's personal choice, you know. If you have a uh like John Teramino started out, remember, with a $50 bankroll. Now John says, don't bother with table searching, but he didn't say that when he had a $50 bankroll. John was the most avid table searcher that we had. I mean, he studied tables to the point of ridiculousness. He would be out in the aisle and he would have, he would know exactly how many hands for several shoes he would have won and lost before he gets into the game, and and then he would get into the game. Uh and and John had virtually no game losses. Now that he has a very large uh bank role compared to what he plays for, he's still a very, as you could tell, a very low-stakes player. Uh though he has a very large uh bank role. And, you know, one of these days it'll occur to him that he should play black chips. Uh, you know, when you when you're not losing ever, you should you should think about playing black chips. Uh now, of course, he says he throws table selection uh right out the window. Uh and you tend to do that when you as your bankroll gets uh larger and larger.

SPEAKER_02 33:29

Isn't that not only a function of bankroll, but confidence from having had the winch?

SPEAKER_04 33:33

Yes, absolutely. It's a function of confidence. It like for instance, if you play a certain city all the time, if you play Las Vegas all the time, or if you play Atlantic City all the time, it isn't very long before you know what you can do. You know what to expect, you know what your game one ratio is going to be. You know how many buy-ins uh you can afford to lose. We had a conversation uh out here in the hall, and I mentioned to one of the players that uh for quarter chips, I never bring more than uh, and something I don't talk about in the manual at all, I never bring more than $2,500 or $3,000 to uh for a three-day trip to play quarters. And he said, well, geez, that doesn't sound like very much money for three days of playing quarters, but it's it's more than sufficient. And in fact, I I I virtually never, I can't remember a time where I where I got down below a thousand dollars. But here's my reasoning. If $2,500 or $3,000 isn't a sufficient bankroll for that casino city, the time that you're there, you shouldn't be there. Okay? You you don't bring six thousand dollars because the conditions are so bad that you can't win. I mean, think about that. That would be that's very dumb. If you can't win with that amount of money, you shouldn't be there. You're not getting in enough winning games. There aren't enough winning games in the town. There either is something wrong with you or there's something wrong with the casino town, uh, like Atlantic City in the summertime, for instance, on Saturday night. It's virtually impossible. But that's that's I think a good rule of thumb, $2,500 or $3,000 for quarter play for a three-day, for a three-day trip. And by the way, I found this my own self. This is true for me. Uh you may want to to determine what your threshold is, but my records, as I went over them, I used to have a lot of of records, and I found that my win ratio or my win percentage or my player advantage was trailing off after the third day. The fourth day, I consistently did worse than I did on the first day. And so what I what I did with that information is just curtailed all of my trips to three days or three days max because I I know that uh on the fourth day I'm just not a very good player the fourth day. I'm gonna start making mistakes. It's just a question of being uh burned out or overtired or or what have you. You know, when you're in a casino town, your adrenaline does some strange things and it makes you feel like you're alive when you're really dead. Okay, back into the uh the uh uh primary indicator. I think that the the way to look at the the first way to look at the primary indicator is to compare our way of playing cards uh to basic strategy. In other words, why are we bothering with this primary indicator? What is it doing for us? What are we getting out of it? You need to recognize that there's such a thing as a strong dealer hand in a weak dealer hand. And whether the dealer's hand is strong or weak has a lot of bearing on how you play your card. Uh you are not going to take a highly risky hit, for instance, against a dealer hand that's weak anyway. And on on the on the other hand, you're not going to stand with lesson 17 against a very strong dealer hand. It just makes no sense to do so. That's what the game is all about, and that's what the game is all about our way, and that's what the game is all about basic strategy way. Basic strategy-wise. When the dealer is weak, you want to take advantage of it, and when the dealer is strong, you need to get a better hand than the dealer has in order to win. If the dealer has a strong hand, you're not going to back that the dealer breaks, that the dealer is going to break. Okay, because the dealer has a strong hand. The whole idea of skill in blackjack is exactly that, determining if the dealer has a strong hand or a weak hand. That is what always determines how you are going to play your cards. Okay, now being that's the information that we're trying to determine with skill. We would like to be able to determine that information as accurately as we can, because it's the whole game of blackjack. Now, the way basic strategy does it is very simple. They only look at one indicator, the dealer's up card. And basic strategy says that if the dealer has an up card of seven or more, she has a strong hand. If she has an up card of six down through deuce, she has a weak hand. So they say against a weak hand, you do not take a risky hit. For instance, basic strategy will tell you you're not going to hit a 15 against a six. Okay? You don't, you don't take a risky hit against a weak hand. That's just common sense. On the other hand, you don't, in in basic strategy again, you don't stand with less than 17 anytime the dealer has a strong hand, which is which they define as an up card of seven up through ace. And if you just remember those two things, you've got 80% of the basic strategy chart memorized. And you've got 80% of the variables, or maybe 70% of the variable strategy chart memorized. However, when we look at it, we just don't buy the way basic strategy does it. And I'll show you why, or I'll tell you why. Consider what basic strategy says. If the dealer has an up card of seven through eight, the dealer has a strong hand. Now think about what that means. There are just as many high cards in the game, the way they do it, as there are low cards. So if the dealer has a high card up, her chances of having a high card in the hole with it are 50%. Her chance of having a low card with it, well, actually they're they're not quite 50% because uh because of sevens, because of the neutral cards, but but let's just let's just call uh all cards above seven high and all cards below seven as low the way we do for a moment. If if the dealer has a high up card, her chances of having a high hold card are 50%, and her chances of having a low hold card are 50%. Okay? Therefore, the fact that she has a high up card is meaningless. I mean she has a 50% chance of having a good hand. Well, she also has a 50% chance of having a bad hand. So when you stop and think about it, that's not very strong evidence to base every single play decision that you make on. It's like basing your play decision on a 50-50 proposition. Now, 50-50, that's like flipping a coin. Okay. On the other hand, let's look at it the other way. The basic strategy says that when the dealer has a, I just gotta get a drink of water here. When the dealer has a low hole card, she has a weak hand. But that's not really true either, is it? Because if she has two low cards, she has a pretty good hand. Usually. I mean she could have a per deuces and have a four. But generally speaking, if she has two low cards, she has a pretty strong hand. She has a drawing hand, it's a drawing hand, but it's a fairly strong hand. So many, many times the the dealer, the basic strategy says that we are in a our bad situation when the dealer has a sex off. And we are, providing she has a 10 with a six. Or not.

SPEAKER_03 43:17

This is the end of NBJ weekend clash two three side one, clash four, we do the end in preparation for playing side two.