BeatTheCasino Podcast | Baccarat & Blackjack Strategy
Hosted by Keith Smith, the podcast features strategy discussions, player interviews, live session highlights, historical training, and practical analysis from experienced members of the BeatTheCasino community.
Topics include:
- Baccarat strategy and situational play
- Opposites vs. Repeats
- Strong Side and disparity
- V87, 4D and other BeatTheCasino approaches
- Shoe analysis and pattern recognition
- Money management and knowing when not to bet
- Blackjack strategy and card counting
- Player experiences from casinos around the world
- AI-assisted simulations and statistical research
- Highlights from the BeatTheCasino forum and training archive
The focus is not on promising guaranteed wins. It is on studying the game, understanding what is happening in the shoe, managing risk, and making more disciplined decisions.
For the full BeatTheCasino experience, including the private forum, Diamond training videos, downloads, historical archives and strategy discussions, visit:
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Gambling involves risk. No strategy or system guarantees winning results.
BeatTheCasino Podcast | Baccarat & Blackjack Strategy
World Class BJ Seminar in from 1992 E Clifton Davis Part I
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You're introduced. You're about the face of the real world of a casino. This isn't the kitchen table. This isn't practice. Your focus needs to change. When you practice, you're really concentrating on card play and the things that the manual has taught you. In the casino, you need to get away from card play. You need to focus on your purpose. Your purpose is to win the money, to go home with some of their money as much as you possibly can. I would like you to divorce yourself from the multitude of people that go to the casino. You are not one of them. You are a professional, trained player. You need to think differently than the multitude of players in the casino. You need to reflect on the fact that the multitude of players lose. If you fall into their pattern, if you do what they do, you're going to lose, just like they do. You need to concentrate on precisely what you have to do, precisely what conditions you want to play under, and concentrate on those things only. I want you to think of yourself as an individual. An individual with a mission, not part of the crowd, not part of the group, an individual with a mission and a purpose. That mission is to win money. Okay, let's take a look at what casino conditions are ideal for us to win the money. The typical player is going to walk into weekend conditions, he's going to walk into crowded conditions, he's going to see full tables, many seven-player games, and he's going to see a lot of losing activity. We want to avoid those kinds of conditions as much as we possibly can. There is a very strong tendency to fall into what I call the normal casino routine. We walk into a casino, we look around at the tables, we look for empty seats, we sit down and we play. This doesn't make it in the world of a professional. We don't want to play under the conditions that they dictate. We want to dictate our own conditions. And we want to play only when the conditions are right for us. It talks about the difference between good conditions and bad conditions. But let me say this to you. I have found, even since writing the world-class manual, that the number of players in the game is more meaningful than everything else put together. Therefore, that is the primary condition that we're looking for. We need to avail ourselves to games with few players in them. The fewer, the better. We need to avail ourselves to casino conditions where there are not crowds of people walking the aisles. This may mean that we need to play morning conditions. It may mean that we need to play late night conditions. It may mean that we need to search from casino to casino until we find these conditions. Whatever it takes. I had a caller call the other day that had just played Atlantic City and really called to cry on my shoulder, as he put it. And the first question I asked him is how many players were playing in the games that he was playing. And he told me that he played all seven player games. And I said, Look, I can't help you. If you're not going to do what the manual tells you to do, I can't help you. We tell you to avoid seven player games. There is simply no way for one player to overcome the playing habits of six other players. When you have six other players feeding the dealer the cards that she needs, you cannot play under those conditions. He said, Yeah, but those were the conditions that I faced. Hey, what can I say? Bull, you've got to look for the right conditions. We're not players. We're not there to play the game. We're not there because we enjoy the game and we simply want to play blackjack. That's for the multitude. We're there to win money. You can win money under the right conditions, but you must only settle for those conditions. You're not there for entertainment. You're there to win money. If this means you walked it down in the casino, the conditions aren't right. If the conditions aren't right, the conditions aren't right. We're not going to stay in that casino. I don't care if the casino's copying us. That makes no difference. We need to find the right conditions. I don't care if you have to leave that casino and walk to another casino. Whatever it takes, our first priority is to find the right conditions. NBJ and world-class play are both designed to play under the right conditions. Remember, there are three parts to blackjack. There's card play, there's betting, and there's table selection. I said them backwards there, didn't I? Table selection has to be number one. All you have to do to win in this game is refuse to play a bad game. Blackjack is as simple as that. Refuse to play a bad game. What are we after? We're after the money. We're not going to find the money in seven-player game conditions. We're not going to find the money when the aisles are crowded with people jumping in and out of games. This may mean we're going to go out to the beach, we're going to have a big lunch, we're going to do something else, go to the exercise room, whatever. Don't play bad conditions. When I used to play full time as a professional player, I rearranged my entire sleeping habits to the conditions. In those days, good conditions occurred after two o'clock in the morning. That's fine. I slept during the day and I played cards at night. I did a whole lot better than the multitude of people. Let me put it to you this way. If you do the exact opposite to what the multitude is doing, you're on the right track. The multitude loses. We don't want to do what they do. Blackjack is about finding opportunity. Professional blackjack is about a search for opportunity. We look for those opportunities, we refuse to play bad conditions, and we only play opportunities. Money opportunities. Look, we get to town, they've got the money. Our job is to get the money from them and to leave town with the money. Your focus has to be on money. It can't be on anything else. What have you got to do? Just say that to yourself. What have I got to do to get the money? Alright, number one, find the right conditions. Refuse to play bad conditions. Okay, the first thing we need to do is to find good casino conditions. How what constitutes good casino conditions? Number one, empty seats. The more empty seats we see, the better. Number two, the less crowded the aisles are, the better. Usually, the best casino conditions occur when people are leaving the casino. The worst conditions occur when people are arriving at the casino. That's one little rule of thumb that you can take to the bank. Let's assume now that we've walked into a casino and the conditions are what we're looking for. We do see lots of empty seats. Okay, how do we go about finding opportunity? I'd like you to think about it this way. There is one best game in that casino. If we can find that game, we can win some money. There's probably several winning games in that casino, but what we would really like to find is the best game in that casino. How do we go about doing that? Well, I talk in the manual about finding a vantage point, a place in the casino where you can look out and you can see all the tables at once. Watch what's going on up there. You're going to see some pits where the where the players are not doing well. It's obvious from a long distance away. You're going to see activity, winning activity, people making noise, people in a happy mood in those pits where the players are doing well. We can from the van from our vantage point, we can look and see where most of the empty seats are. That's what we want to look at first. This looks like the best pit in that casino. Let's go and investigate that pit from close up. Okay, we walk down to the pit and we walk the aisles of that particular pit and look over all of the games. What are we looking for? Number one, empty seats. Number two, winning activity. We all know what winning activity looks like. Chips on the table, multiple chip bets, happy players, dealers that look like they're in shock. That's winning activity. That's what we're there to find. Okay, what is the best game in that pit? Let's try that game first, the game that appears to be best from the aisle. Okay, so now we've decided to get into a game. It is very difficult to get into a game without changing the player number. The only time when we can do this is when a player happens to get up from the game right while we're watching it. But if the player got up from the game, why did he get up? Are we going to say that we can play the game better than he he did? Maybe yes, maybe no. Normally, when you get into a game, you're going to pull to change, you're going to change the player number. This can do anything to the game. It can make it better, it can make it worse, it can leave it the same. So once we're in the game, we need to test the water. If it's going to be a losing game, our whole objective is to get out of that game spending as little money as possible. Okay, what is the table minimum? When you get into a game, when you start that game, there is absolutely no reason to bet any more than the table minimum till we find out if the game conditions are good. You know how we tested the water in the first base system. There's really no reason not to do that, no matter what position we're we're going to play in the game. Test the water. Are we winning? What's going on in this game? Can we win hands? Is the dealer wiping everybody out? If we're not going to play that game, our objective becomes get out of that game spending as little money as possible. Remember that the game doesn't know how much money you're playing for. If you're going to lose on $25 chips, you're going to lose on $5 chips. Play the table minimum while you're testing the water. Look at your hands-won ratio. Look at what you need to do to win the hands. Do we have to hit more? Do we have to hit less in this particular game? We want to decide in the first few hands if that's the game we're going to play. We never make that decision before we get in the game. We don't say I'm going to sit down in this game and play it for two hours. We don't have anything in our mind when we sit down to the table other than is this the game that we want to play? And the only way we can know that is to test the game out. There's only so much information you can get from the aisle. Most of the information you have to get from the seat, playing the hands. Okay, what is our hands-one ratio starting right out? Is the game clumped? Can we differentiate between high rounds and low rounds? Usually when I start playing in a game, I'll play advantage betting until I get an idea of what's going on in that game because advantage betting is the least risky of all of the betting systems that we have, with the possible exception of flat betting. Bet high with a high ratio, bet low with a low ratio. Are we able to discern high ratio from low ratio in this game? Is the dealer breaking? What is she breaking on? Be very interested when the dealer gets a five or a six up. Watch and see if she actually does break. When she does break, what did she break on? What was her up card? We're in an information gathering routine while we're trying to decide if this is the game we're going to play. If it's not, the sooner we make that decision, the better off we are. Okay, let's assume that the first game that we sat down to, we decided within about five or six hands, this is not the game that we want to play. Let's get up from that game. Most players, when they get up from one seat, for some reason have to break time records to sit down in another seat. It's they have an urgency about them to get in a game. This is wrong. This is not professional. We don't want to have any sense of urgency about us at all when we're playing blackjack for money. It's not a time thing. Time is on the casino side. We have to make it be on our side. All right, we made a mistake. We sat down at the wrong game. But we corrected that mistake quickly by getting up from that game. Let's go back to our search. Let's walk down the aisles. Let's recuperate, get our mind off of that game, get our mind off of that game and back on to our focus. Find a winning situation. Find a winning opportunity. Okay, we're back in the aisle, we're searching again. We may even want to take a slight break after a losing episode. Just to get our mind back into focus, get our mind off of that game and back onto our objective. We may find that it's going to take several attempts to find the right game. This is normal. I don't want you to get the least bit frustrated, but it's it's simply the table search routine. Some days we hit that good game right off the bat, the very first game that we sit down at. Some some days it's going to take several games. I've had occasions where it can take five, six, or seven attempts to find that right game. Don't get discouraged. Don't change anything. Keep your mind in the right place. Give yourself all the time you need to get your mind in the right place before each attempt. Okay, now let's talk about what we do when we do find a good opportunity. What do we need to do in that game? We're looking for how to get the most money out of that game. We need to note what the game's characteristics are, what wins in that game. Some games you can virtually sense what the cards are going to be. You know when high cards are going to come out, you know when low cards are going to come out, you know sometimes you can even say out loud what your hit card is going to be, and you can be right most of the time. Many times, for instance, in a game, I'll call for a 10 and get the 10 because I know that a 10 is coming. Other games, we don't have that intuition. The game lacks readability. It doesn't necessarily mean that it's a bad game. It might be a very good game. All I want you to do is note whether you have good predictability in the game or you don't have good predictability in the game because it's one of the tools we can use when it's available to us. What we need to note is where is the opportunity in this game? What is winning in this game? Very, very frequently we will win with a high ratio and we will tend to lose with a low ratio. Let's just talk about losing with a low ratio, which is normal. If we're losing with a low ratio, we need to determine how much we have to hit in that game. We need to experiment with the game a little bit. Many, many times we can virtually break even in low ratio, or even win a little bit, as many of you notice, by adjusting our hitting in that game. Sometimes it's hit less, sometimes very often it's hit more. Very often we need to play the low ratio rounds dealer strategy or very close to dealer strategy. How do we adjust our play to gel with that particular game? Now, what constitutes winning activity in this game? Is it high ratio? Is it low ratio? Is it those in-between times when it's going from low to high? When it's going from high to low. We need to note what hands we're winning in this game. What are the conditions when we're winning those hands in the game? We're trying to get the feel of this game. We're trying to find out what wins and what loses in this game. That's our prime focus because that information is going to tell us how to bet this game. Many, many times when a game lacks readability, that's when we want to think about a progression. Are we losing three in a row in this game? If we're not losing three in a row in this game, we want to start thinking about betting a progression. We'll maybe switch from advantage betting to a progression. Let's not talk about progression games though right now. Let's talk about advantage betting games. What is the best way to play advantage betting games? Well, think about what we're trying to do in advantage betting. We're trying to bet high on hands that we're going to win, and we're trying to bet low on hands that we're going to lose. That's the whole idea of advantage betting. Then what is predicting in that game hands that we're going to win? What is the tens ratio when we're winning? What does the tens ratio look like in this game? Is there just one large high ratio section of the game? Are there two or more high ratio sections of the game? How many low rounds in a row are there? For instance, if we're playing a game where there's just never more than two low rounds in a row, we're going to start betting on that information. Anytime we see two low ratio rounds in a row, we know that the next round is very likely to be high. We're going to bet high. This is the kind of information we need to pick up in the game. What constitutes dealer breaking activity in this game? Is she breaking during the low ratio rounds, which sometimes occurs? Is she breaking during the high ratio rounds? Is she breaking on those in-between rounds? Is she breaking period? What is her break ratio? Can we start betting on her break ratio? Can we start betting that the dealer is going to break? Is that a viable situation in this game? Of course, if the dealer is simply not breaking at all or breaking at, say, the rate of 10% or less, we're not going to bet on dealer breaks. We're going to bet just the opposite. We're going to bet that the dealer is not going to break. How do we bet that the dealer is not going to break? We simply don't stand with less than 17. Anytime you stand with less than 17, you're betting the dealer is going to break. Information creates opportunity. The more information we can derive out of that game, the more opportunity we create, the more we know about the ins and out of that particular game that we're playing, what's going on in that game, what causes a dealer to lose, what causes a dealer to break, what causes us to win, the more opportunity we create in that game. Little things like noting how long clumps are can be an enormous help and can create enormous opportunity. Our job is to create our own opportunity. We can't simply wait for opportunity to happen to us. We need to create our own opportunity. How do we do that? Information. The more information we have, the more opportunity we have. What are we noticing about this game? I would like you to think about it this way. Every time we walk into a casino with favorable conditions, we have an opportunity. I'm talking thousands of dollars of win. It's our job to find that opportunity and to reject everything else, to zero in on where that opportunity might be. There is no such thing as a casino with favorable conditions or opportunity does not exist. It's our job to find that opportunity and decide how best to take advantage of that opportunity. People talk to me all the time about how much money they should bring to a casino. I don't believe in bringing a lot of money to the casino because opportunity creates money. In a good opportunity, you're not going to be betting your money. You're going to be betting their money. Once you're betting their money, anything can happen. Keith Smith and I were talking earlier today about the fact that most major wins happen very, very quickly. It's just a situation where a person recognizes an opportunity and goes after that opportunity. He's betting their money. Many times these wins will happen in just a matter of a few minutes, 20 minutes, a half an hour. A person is walking out of the casino with $25,000 or $30,000, often much more. Opportunity and table max go hand in hand. If it's a good game, we should be increasing our bets with their money and striving to get to the table max. Risk exposure occurs only when you're getting to the table max. Once you're at the table max, there's very little risk in the game, providing a course that we follow religiously our movable stop loss system. When you think about it, most major wins in the game of blackjack were not achieved by people who know a lot about the game. They were achieved by people who know a lot about seizing opportunity. You had the advantage of knowing a lot about this game. A lot about this game. That puts you in the position of enjoying far more opportunities than the average player enjoys. If anybody can find opportunity, you can. Okay, we've discussed mental aspects of the game. I'd like to discuss your physical conditioning for the game. The first thing you need to recognize is that physical conditioning and mental conditioning go hand in hand. You can't have you can't be well prepared mentally for the game unless you're well prepared physically for the game. You can't play well when you're tired or when you're out of shape, and so on and so forth. Let's look at what the typical player does. And remember that the multitude loses. The typical player gets to the casino city somehow, he flies there or he drives there or whatever. He's probably low on sleep before he ever left, just from his trip preparation. He gets there and he has a strong tendency to play these marathon situations. He goes in, he plays a lot of bad games right off the bat, he loses a little money. Now he's in an urgent catch-up mode. He's in totally the wrong frame of mind to play, to play well. By the time he does find a good opportunity, he's probably played so long and he's so out of shape by then that he's either going to miss the opportunity or he's gonna screw it up. When we play cards, we have to be in peak physical condition. I tell people all the time, don't even play the first day of your trip. Get there, get your room situated, get the lay of the land, maybe go for a walk, take a look at what's going on in the casinos, look at several of them. But don't play the first day if you've been driving all day or flying all day. And of course, this has to do with how close you live to the casino city and so on and so forth. But typical player is done before he starts just because of his casino comportment, the way he handles his trip, his time scheduling, and so forth. The typical player, he looks at it, let's say he's going for a three-day stay. He looks at it this way. Okay, there's so many hours in the day. If I can play for so many hours, I can win so much money. That's just not the way it works. Big wins happen very, very quickly. It has nothing to do really with how much time you have available. It just has to do with seizing opportunity. It has to do with being in good shape physically and mentally when the opportunity occurs. Most people, when they go on a trip, they change their entire diet. They eat at restaurants, they order things that they would never eat at home. They have these huge breakfasts, they have huge lunches, they have huge dinners, they and they put their body into a logey condition. When you go to the casino, let's just talk about diet for a minute. Eat the same as you always eat. Don't change the way you eat, and don't change what you eat just because you happen to be in the casino town. Your body's not going to like you for that. Your body wants to be treated right. If you treat your body right, it's a lot easier to keep your mind that would never think about staying up after 11 o'clock at home. They go to a casino and all of a sudden three o'clock in the morning is early for them. They stay up all night, they play all night, they go to bed, they get a couple hours of sleep in a strange bed in a strange room. They're back the next day, they're playing again. They're in no kind of shape to play at all. You need to get actually more rest when it takes a lot out of you mentally. I like to see people get more rest even than they normally do. Exercise is important. You can't sit in a chair all day and still be able to think straight at the end of that day. You need to get out and go for walks, give get the blood circulation going, get the oxygen in you, get outside a little bit. Be good to your body, condition the whole trip. Get plenty of rest. Be well rested when you go down to the casino to play cards. Think of it almost like a boxing match or some other type of sporting event. You're going to prepare your body for what you're about to do. It's a difficult thing to do. Do you ever notice that in home?