SPEAKER_00 0:09

And uh I think everything that's been said about him has been said before. Uh he's a tremendous guy and a brilliant blackjack player, and uh he's gonna talk to you. And uh John, take over. Thank you.

SPEAKER_01 0:21

Thank you. Okay. What we're gonna do, I get a lot of calls from players who are having uh trouble. And I I seem to see that a lot of the trouble arises because a lot of people don't understand the theory behind the decision-making process, what we're trying to do here, why we're doing this play at this particular time, and I feel I'm gonna teach you you know some theory today on why we do certain plays. I'll teach you, you know, professional level first base, and um we'll you know proceed from there. First of all, in any game that you're trying to enter, the obvious obviously the goal is that you want to win. Um how many, I want to see a show of hands. How many do practice uh table selection religiously? Okay, about half, that's good. Um let me tell you how to really select a table, whether you're going into first or third. Basically, please, I'm gonna give the theory behind it too. If you see three people at a table, four people at a table, three out of the four winning, what can you tell me about the clumping in that game? Anyone? Right. Exactly. Basic strategy is currently prevailing in that situation. You know you're not in an overclump situation. So what you want to do, you see you have some winning activity, you want to uh everyone knows what winning activity is, I don't have to go into that. Um what you want to do now is you want to look from the aisle what strategy you are going to employ in that game, should you choose to enter that game. So, um, what you want to do is you want to look for a number of things in five, six, maybe eight hands. Okay. First, um, you're looking for the winning activity. Second, and most important, you're watching um rounds before you even place a bet. Suppose you're you're going in for first base. Okay, we'll focus on first. Look to see what the dealer's 10 up catch rate is. By catch rate, I mean how many times is he getting it? Random probability dictates that uh the dealer will have four and thirteen. If the dealer is catching six, seven out of thirteen, that you're not gonna be able to overcome over, you're not going to be able to compensate for that fact. Here's why. Listen, suppose you're in a first space game, your random probability of catching a first card 10, which is the tenet of what you're trying to accomplish at with the first base system, random probability dick six, you're gonna get four and thirteen. If you start catching first tens at a rate of 50%, okay, you're gonna be getting approximately 6.5 per 13. So if you're in a game where the dealer is catching six out of 13 first card 10s, you're not outdoing the dealer, but just by half of one, you know, by half of a 10. You understand? Does everyone understand that point I just made? So if you're in a game where you could say, hey, I'm catching 50% first card 10s, big deal. What is the dealer catching in that game? The dealer could be catching 70% 70% first card 10s. You're gonna get walloped. Okay? You must pay attention to the math of the game when you're in it. Okay? No, 10-up is a very, very powerful weapon that is caused by overcrowding in these casinos. And uh the more players at a table, the better the probability that the dealer's 10-ups increase. You'll see, players drop out, um, just like Ellis says, reduce the number of players, residual clumping um starts to decrease, and the game starts to randomize a little more. You don't want an overclump situation. Now, um, in addition to the dealer ten up, again, if you see the closer it is to four out of 13, the better the game is. You want to also calculate what if the dealer is breaking, if the dealer's not breaking, obviously the game's overclumped. So you're suppose you're looking at the same table, you see three people winning. Obviously, he's breaking, okay? But not necessarily so, but usually. So you won't don't want to sit in a game where the dealer is not breaking, because what you're doing is literally handing them a load of gun saying, hi, I want to play in an overclumped game, take my money. So don't do it. Okay. Um here's another trick I use. You guys can figure you might be using it subconsciously. I, in addition to noticing what the dealer's break percentage is and his ten up percentage, I want to know w what the average value of his completed hand is. Uh breaks I don't count. So if I surveyed uh six hands, he broke two, which is great. The almost four hands he didn't break, I want to know what he got. If he had 10 up, 10, 20, 9, hidden ace, 20, 6 up, and a 5 card, 21, and uh, you know, another 10 up, 10, 20. I'll be a little more hesitant. I you don't want to play games where the dealer either breaks or pulls 20 or 21, you're gonna get slaughtered. Okay, very important. Don't underestimate the value of tracking the dealer's average standing hand. Very, very powerful table selection uh tool. Okay, also remember make the most important thing, make sure that the dealer's not up on those tens. That's the single most reason why everyone's losing, in addition to table selection. Okay? So you basically want to do a number of things. I'll I'll go over it again when you're about to enter a table. I'm looking at this table right here. I see first two people winning, there's four people. Okay. I'm about to now look to see uh the facts I just said. I want to see the dealer's 10 up ratio before I enter the game. I want to see what his break percentage is. I want to know what his average hand size has been in that game when he has not broken. Okay? Now this is just you could you Okay, hold on one minute. Okay, question. You could utilize this table selection procedure from any first or third base. Now I'm gonna focus on to first. What you have to do in addition to what I've just said. First, let me take this question.

SPEAKER_02 7:00

How many rounds do you watch to get that information?

SPEAKER_01 7:02

Uh sometimes it takes um s I pretty much can tell in three rounds if I have any shot. You guys would, in the beginning, take as many as necessary, maybe a full shoe if possible, if you have to.

SPEAKER_03 7:15

In Atlantic City, you can't wait a full shoe. Yes, you can. Not in a lower seat.

SPEAKER_01 7:18

What you do is you put your hands over that empty first base chair and you tell them I'm just gonna wait the shoe out. I've never had anyone try and sit in my seat. Never. I block the seat off. I put my hand, this is the seat. I'm like this. If anyone comes out, I'm gonna, you know, they do I lie. I say they're doing good, I'm just gonna give them the courtesy till the shoe runs out. I even say that to the dealer. I'm I'm gonna be courteous, I'm gonna wait till the shoe runs out. Of course, half the time I enter. In the middle of the shoe, but who cares? Let them call me a liar. Anyone else have a question?

SPEAKER_05 7:49

What's the number you're looking for on the case?

SPEAKER_01 7:52

The first base? Five or less. No, excuse me.

SPEAKER_05 7:55

The hands, like the dealer you said, twenty.

SPEAKER_01 7:59

I want to know something I found. If you're if you can find this these parameters in a game, uh winning activity, dealer breaking around 25 to 30 percent, and average standing hand at the time of entry is uh 18 or less. You okay? If he got got a few 18s, or maybe 18.5, because of course he might get 120, a 17, and two eighteens, the closer it is to your 17, the better. And I found it will not let you down. If a game is that biased towards the players, it takes a while for it takes a moron to run it. Okay, and I'm sure we've all run into those. Okay, um, let me go to first base now. In addition to the criteria I just gave you, that's just I can do all that, you know, I do all this subconsciously. So I'm trying to pull off what I do subconsciously on a conscious level so I can relay it to all you. Uh first base, obviously. Anyone here, uh, what is the object of first base?

unknown 9:01

Catch a catch a first card ten.

SPEAKER_01 9:04

What'd you say? Catch a first card 10. Catch a first card ten. Anyone else?

SPEAKER_08 9:09

Yeah.

SPEAKER_01 9:10

Very good. It is we are all world-class players. We are not trying to catch first card 10s.

SPEAKER_07 9:16

Be able to predict.

SPEAKER_01 9:18

Yes, I'm gonna give you some help on that. This is big stuff now. I'm gonna give you uh it's not complicated. I'm sure a lot of you have not done this. And be honest with yourself, because honesty is the only way you're ever going to win. If you don't know your own strengths and weaknesses to and you you're able to pinpoint them, you're fooling me and you're fooling yourself. You're not going to win. Okay? What you are trying to do is catch a double high card. Okay? You're not trying to get a first card 10. I could I can tell you loads of games where I've caught 60% first card 10s, and every one of those 60% first card tens, I got a stiff. Uh, has everyone here gotten that same phenomena? More often than they want to see? Okay. Here is how to combat that. Again, I can't emphasize enough. The pre-entry checklist. It's just like a pilot, a commercial pilot who flies uh for a major airline. He has a pre-flight checklist that takes him over 30 minutes before he even taxis off. You have the same thing to do. Again, I'm talking about people who are serious about this, professionals. If you're just a casual player, you might want, well, you know, you're a fool because there's no reason to be a casual player with the ammunition you have in front of you. So it's a it's a waste of time. Be a prof be the best you can be, otherwise you're just kidding yourself. Okay? What you want to do is you want to catch a double high card. And can anyone tell me how to increase the probability of you catching a double high card? What can you do in that game you're in to note that? Anyone?

SPEAKER_03 10:51

Low card goes in the end of the room.

SPEAKER_01 10:54

Okay, you?

SPEAKER_03 10:55

Well, the tense ratio track what program you can't observe.

SPEAKER_01 11:00

So I speak up a little bit, this challenge.

SPEAKER_03 11:02

No, I said you got a the tense ratio is is the most important thing. Exactly. We're locating the tens in a deck. I mean, knowing whether it's so tell tell everyone here how to use the tens ratio. Well, if you're tracking tense ratio, you know how many low rounds are coming. No, okay, no, not the first base.

SPEAKER_01 11:17

It's you of course you want to know how many low rounds are coming, but this is the most okay, you.

SPEAKER_02 11:22

You want to see how many tens are following, how many tents? How ball did ten solid 10 clumpers?

SPEAKER_01 11:26

Okay, no, we'll get we'll get to that at another point.

SPEAKER_08 11:28

Last five, I think what you want to do is see where if you had ended first base, what other two cards you would have gotten? Okay, no, okay.

SPEAKER_01 11:40

What you want to do, no, no, no more questions. What you want now the last five cards. No. What you are trying to accomplish, listen. What's the most important thing? You want to catch a double high card. Where is the double high card combination coming from? You're looking at the player playing second position. After what type of round is he catching a double high card? You got it? Most of the time it's going to be after a high. You without that information, you're a fool. You've got to know where the winners are coming from. Obviously, double high cards usually a winner, so I'm going to just refer to that as the winner. Where are the winners coming from? If the winners, if the double high cards, you've you're doing this checklist that I just gave you, and in addition, you're now looking for where the winners are coming from, you want to note were they coming after a high round or low round? Okay. If they are coming after a low tens ratio round, what can you tell me about the clumping signature in that game? If every time you place a tie bet, your high level bet, anticipating a double high card, after a high round, you don't get a double high card, you get a stiff. Now, when you place it after a low round, you get the double high card half the time. Tell me why, what what is in the clumping, what has happened to the clumping of that game to favor your double high card catch rate in low after low ratio rounds? Can anyone figure it out?

SPEAKER_06 13:10

The low round don't mean for a high round for the end of the hand?

SPEAKER_01 13:15

I want to know specifically in clumping terms. Okay.

SPEAKER_03 13:21

Yeah, a low high tense ratio. I mean, right.

SPEAKER_01 13:24

What has happened in this show? I can I make this thing go on? This uh overhead?

SPEAKER_08 13:31

Uh wait a little bit. Is it the signature?

SPEAKER_01 13:36

Yeah.

SPEAKER_03 13:40

You have a tensor signature.

SPEAKER_01 13:42

You have something to write on, maybe a sh you don't have oh, you don't have those things? Ellis usually writes on this someone's trying to play a joke here. Okay. All right. If you're now in the midst of uh doing your cable qualification, okay, you've done the free flight checklist, you've now ascertained the fact that you're the person playing second base position is only catching a double high card after low ratio rounds. This is the diagram of the clumping signature in that show. Here's the cutoff. I'm just gonna say, I'm just gonna put alien writing.

SPEAKER_06 14:30

John, excuse me.

SPEAKER_01 14:31

Yes, sir. Sure, no problem. How's that? Better? Okay. All right. Here's the uh let me get this up a little bit. Okay. Here are the cutoff cards. Okay, that we'll say that simulates two gas. If you are catching the double high card after low rounds, this is the clumping signature. This is why you're able to catch a double high card a little better after low rounds than high. Because the tens, the significant um high tens ratio sections, which is 50% in that round, are displays rather evenly throughout the shoe. Okay, you might have two here, one over here, but the whole um diagram of the shoe would be it runs throughout the shoe. Now, I'm gonna tell you, after a high ratio round, I'm sure you could you if you follow me, you're catching double high cards only after high tens ratio rounds, okay? After the after the low rounds, you're getting a C death. Reasoning for that. Here's the cutoff cards. You're only catching double high cards after high rounds now, so we'll get rid of that. This is why all the tens are going to be in one second. It might be here or here or here. If you're only catching a double high card after high rounds, you know you're in a game that is heavily clumped. Can everyone follow the reasoning behind that? Anyone have any questions? You can't visualize that. Anyone have any problems visualizing it? I want to make sure you understand the theory. This is very important. Anything, okay?

SPEAKER_03 16:41

Is it better to uh highly clumped better?

SPEAKER_01 16:44

No, well, what you're facing here, no, it's you're better off if you the gold mine opportunities when you catch double high cards after low rounds or neutral rounds. What that tells you is the game isn't that heavily clumped yet. But as time goes on, the game gets more clumped, obviously, unless all the players go to bed, it's going to go towards the other extreme. Remember, as the clumping increases, the tendency to for tens to congregate in one area also increases. So you're going to have the tens dispersed in one section in heavy clumping. That is why after high ratio round, you seem to get your double high card. You follow me? Now be careful, when a game is that heavily clumped, you might be trading 20s with the dealer. It eventually reaches a saturation point and the game is rendered over clumped and unplayable.

SPEAKER_06 17:36

Let's say that you're getting the double highs after the low round. Okay. Um what what would be happening is that you get your first high card and then you and then perhaps there would there be a low clump and then and then and then by the time What happens is if the clump is lengthy enough for you to catch that first high card, it usually switches back, it might switch back and forth twice before it comes back.

SPEAKER_01 18:01

But the thing is it's random enough that you will catch the double high card more often than after high ratio rounds in that shoe. Meaning if it's um if it's completely high, if it's heavily clumped, you follow me, the only time you have a shot of catching a double high card is when, in the high tens ratio section, because if this is the area of the shoe is severely, these two areas are depleted in 10. You might very well, you will probably catch the first card 10. But what are the chances, if most of the tens are in there in that section, of you catching another 10 when it's so depleted in this section? You follow me? It's very difficult. Yeah, if you say 200 cards you're looking to pull, there might be only 50, 10, 10. You follow me? It's very depleted in 10 because they're all sitting here. Okay, you everyone follow me? Okay. Um, what you want to do now is you want to see where the wind is coming from. High ratio or low ratio round. Now I'm gonna get into another um another important area. I'm gonna take a survey. Um anyone who wants to raise his hand, I'll I'll you know, acknowledge him. What are your parameters? The person, whoever speaks, I want to know what your parameters for placing a high bet are. After what constitutes the um trigger point, why you would place a high bet? Okay, what are your indicators for placing a high bet for anticipating a double high card? Tell me after what card. I want to know how you, right now, decide whether to bet high or low.

SPEAKER_02 19:48

What I'm doing now is if the last two cards are high, I'll bet a high. I'll pump my bet up.

SPEAKER_01 19:56

What do you mean? Uh it could be like eight, eight. Um I'm calling a tens.

SPEAKER_02 19:59

The last two cards are called ten. Okay. At the last five cards, there's a low card and another ten. In other words, I'm keying in the last five cards. The more tens that are in that last five cards, I pump my bet up a little more. Instead of one, two, I went to one three.

SPEAKER_01 20:12

Anyone else?

SPEAKER_07 20:14

Well, if uh I'm watching a third base player and probably guy right next to him.

SPEAKER_02 20:20

Right.

SPEAKER_07 20:21

I'm watching their cards going right into the dealer. And that would give me my indication. Uh, if if I see the flow and I'm able to say that double R tens are gonna come, then I bet up there.

SPEAKER_01 20:35

Okay. Anyone else uh anyone else? Anyone do it the book way after a final 10? They just bet high. Okay. You're getting a lot of tips, right? Yeah, I'm gonna do it. Okay, okay. It's not Else's four by the way. He just plays on a level so high that he just assumes everyone will pick up these little tidbits along the way.

SPEAKER_08 20:56

Um I'll let you know in a minute, yes. All right, you go around the end two tens, two to three tens. Okay, okay.

SPEAKER_01 21:08

Okay, we have everyone's keying after one or two tens. Let me tell you something. A clump is a member of uh whatever family of cards, low cards, we're talking about a low deuce, low age, three, four, five, six. Seven is a blank card, as this gentleman uh taught me when I was teaching him over a year ago. Seven, when you see a seven, ignore it, pretend it doesn't exist. With it's just like El says, it's a high, it's a wild high card when highs are running, it's a wild low card when lows are running. That's all a seven is. Okay? Statistical significance, and I'm sure a lot of you have been to college. Who can define that for me? Does anyone remember what statistical significance means in statistics? Okay. What it means is basically at what point uh is the data that you have. Significantly not an aberration from randomness, meaning at one point, if you flip a coin three times and you get two heads and one tail, you say, okay, that's that's you know that's close to random. If you flip it ten times, you get six, four. That's not too far away from five, five random probability. Every does everyone follow me on that? Because the probability of a coin flip is 0.50 50-50 for each outcome, heads or tails. So if you flip uh a coin even 20 times and it's 13 times head, seven tails, it's not that far away from 10. It's not um significantly further away that you could say, hey, something here is happening out of the ordinary, something significant is happening. Okay? So if you're looking um at a game, uh is a clump two cards in length? No. A clump is defined as four more cards, like cards in a row. But how can we best use clumps to enhance our play decision at first, meaning catch a first card ten? Three is the magic number. I'm not talking about tens. Of course, if they're all tens, that's it's even better. What you would like to see is three high cards, two high cards and a ten, or ten, ten, ten, or by high card I mean eight, nine, ten, jack, queen, king, high ace. Okay? What you want to see is a string of three high cards ending with a ten or ace. That is your code. That is your key indicator that yes, I am probably in a significant clump here. If you just bet off a final ten, that might be a long ten. That might be, you know, it might there might be no clumps of tens. You want to find out, you want a true clump to play off of. You don't have to have ten, ten, ten. You could have nine, eight, ten, eight, eight, ten, eight, eight, aces, eight, nine, ten, um, ten, ten, ten, which is better. Obviously, the more tens and aces in that clump, the better. You're gonna have ten ace ace, which is super. Um, bottom line is you want three natural high cards in there. Now I'm gonna teach you all a trick. Everyone follows me that on that parameter.

unknown 24:16

I have three card cards.

SPEAKER_01 24:18

Right. You want it to be high cards ending with a ten or ace. No substitutions. Okay um does everyone here know about high deuces? If anyone doesn't know what a high deuce is, please raise your hand. I can explain it to you in two minutes. Okay. What a high deuce is okay, I'll I I think I could draw I'll draw a little bit. Um a high deuce is a deuce that appears in the middle of a high card clump. Okay? High deuce, I'll tell you why it happens. When you see this a three or four-card combination, suppose you see this on the table. Ten, deuce, ten, nine. Okay, there's a ten deuce here, better yet. I'll write it. Ten ace deuce seven, king, queen. What you have here is not a dirty clump. You have an elongated natural high card, six-card high clump, because you have a ten high ace, deuce. Now, a deuce in between high cards is counted as a high card. It is called a high deuce. The reason for that is players get this. This is their first two cards. Most of the time they hit, even when the dealer has a two or three up, face treasure says hit. So they hit and they get another ten. So what you have now is a ten deuce ten three-card packet, which goes into discard tray. Now think about how many times this keeps perpetuating itself throughout the life of a show, okay, which is like 24 hours, or God knows how long they're keeping these cards in play. But keep thinking in this show, this keeps perpetuating itself. You get many, many packets that keep manifesting themselves. Ten deuce ten, ten duce ten, break, ten duce, ten, break, ten, deuce, ten, break. What that creates is rows of this. Deuce, maybe uh you might get a, you know, an eight there, but you when you shuffle a ten deuce ten into a hardcore clump, the deuce turns high. Can everyone follow that? If anyone is unclear, I'll explain it again. Please. You have to, as I said, if you don't understand the theory, you're fooling yourself, you will not win. You have to know why you you have to know why that deuce is high. That's why that deuce is high. So has everyone got that, sir?

SPEAKER_06 26:52

Um, so that so that means if the deuce can count as one of your No, it doesn't.

SPEAKER_01 26:58

I'm glad you answered that question. Doesn't count. If you see this 10-8 deuce, that's no good. You have to see another high card. Now, three, it's when looking for the three cards to end three natural high cards, I mean natural highs. This isn't a four card, this is one, two, three natural highs, and the deuces deuce and a seven are artificial high cards. Okay? We're looking for three natural highs, but an artificial card could be dispersed in between them. Okay, you follow me? You follow what it's saying? So if you have this, this is acceptable. Eight? Deuce? Well, this, oh, I'm gonna ask someone if this is acceptable. Is that an acceptable three-card high clump? Why not? There's only two high cards there, you have to have three natural highs. A natural high is eight through high eight. If this was there, is that okay? Yes. Okay, you follow me? You're looking for statistical significance. This is significant. Yes, you're in the middle of a high card club. I'm not just betting this and and pipe dreaming that you know a bunch of tens are gonna be following. We know we're in the middle of one. Okay. Let me erase this. Okay. So um, we're looking for instances where we see that three-card, minimum of three-card code at the end of the tail end.

SPEAKER_02 28:41

Yes? Is the last round?

SPEAKER_01 28:45

You don't, that deuce could be turning high or low. Think about it. Think about it. That deuce could be turning high or low. If in that game you're in, this is getting a little more advanced, you know that the deuce is always a high card, then you could do it. But that's yes. You but it has to be in the game that you're in. You have to recognize that fact. It takes, you want a sample of at least three of those, and you want two out of three to be, you know, become positive, meaning double high card.

SPEAKER_06 29:12

One other question. Let's say that you have a five-aced King King. Five ace king king. The last card was the king. Would that ace count as one of those?

SPEAKER_01 29:21

Yes, I will count that ace as one of the cards because the two at the tail end were kings. It's statistically significant enough to have that. Because even if you count it as half, it's two and a half rounded off to three. It could be either way, that that ace. So we'll round it all, we'll say 2.5, because we'll only count the ace as half. We'll round it up to three.

SPEAKER_06 29:39

Or an eight, ace, eight, king, cane.

SPEAKER_01 29:44

Ace, eight, king, cane? Yeah, just one of them. That's good, that's okay.

unknown 29:47

Okay. All right.

SPEAKER_01 29:50

Oh, anyone have any questions on the theory? Yes?

SPEAKER_05 29:54

Uh do both of these coincide? In other words, if I'm playing, I'm watching, and I'm getting my double ten double after a low round ratio. Low round 10 ratio, and a high round 10 ratio comes with king, king, king. Do I up my bet then? Or does that?

SPEAKER_01 30:12

Oh, we rephrase that question again?

SPEAKER_05 30:14

Okay, we're watching and we're seeing that after a low tens ratio.

SPEAKER_01 30:19

Um, okay, remember, what I'm trying to say is where the winners are coming from. I'm not just looking for one. Um suppose you see on the game, you know, you see all the signals that yes, this is a good game. I could possibly get an advantage here. What you're going to do when you enter, when you enter, first before you even enter, you want a general idea what the clumping profile is in that game. Is it monitor? If it's if is it is it lightly clumped? If it's lightly clumped, what after what round would you favor the double high card to come after? Anyone? Very good. Low. If you um ascertain that it's a very highly clumped game, obviously the tens are only going to come after tens, yeah after a high ratio round. Okay? So what you want to do is now you're at on the aisle, you're watching. Again, you can do all this in half a shoe. You want to look for that three-card code, and then you see, okay, it's here. This round just ended 8, 10, 10, and it was a low tens ratio round. Let's see what I get, okay? I'll I'll even do it on the board. You're standing there, and you get a okay. After a low tense ratio, you get these two cards. Ten, six. This is the person at second base, okay? There's, you know, three, four people playing, but first is open, you've blocked the seat off. That's not good. That's not what you want to get, okay? So it's strike one on low. Okay? After a high tense ratio, you get a ten, and you get a nine. Now that's a that's that's that's a hit. That's good. Okay? Right now you're going, okay, it looks like a high round, but that's not enough. Two two one of each is not enough of a sample for you to start betting a spread off of. If you start betting a spread because of that, you're out of your mind. You want a more significant sample size. Okay, that could just be one, you know. Okay? So now you're um you have a general idea that it looks like high. Okay, now say you don't want to lose a seat, you enter. Keep flat betting a table minimum, wait for some more samples. Another another code, which you guys all know what the code is, a triple high, ending with a ten or ace, appears after a low round, and you get this. Six, three, strike two, forget it, you're out. Because even if the next three or four in a row were double highs, it's not going to be far enough away from random probability to make a difference. You follow me? Now, if this one goes ace ten, blackjack, now you're two for two. Now I would say you're two out of two. Your best probability is right here. Code after a high tense ratio start after high rounds only. Low rounds, any code after low round, you just bet low. It's garbage. You're getting stiffs, you're not getting anything that you want. This is the horsepower in this game right here. Betting the code, which is the three-card high ending in a tenor ace after a high tense ratio round, you would start off with a one to two spread. Okay? On the next triple high after a high tense ratio, if you're betting, if you're at a five dollar table, bet ten dollars. Okay? Now, you've already said forget the low, the after a low ratio round. Only high is going to work. In your first money hand where you're betting up on your spread, you get a three, seven, against a six, you double it, and you get a ten, and you win. Okay? It's still strike one for there, even though you won it. You got a good hand. Now you're at uh two out of three, which is still good. That's 66% first card, 10, 66% double high cards. You want to get double high cards 50% of the time, minimum 50% of the time or more. If you then you'll succeed, because even if you win, if you can win even 50%, if out of the remaining 50%, even if you only win half the hand, you're winning 75% of your high bet opportunities. Can you follow that? Okay. So um now you're one strike, you're have you have three in your high bet series now. Three times you bet high. Uh you've, of course, these two were table minimum, say, or this one was, you entered on this one. Uh you're two out of three. The next one's gonna be important. If you get another three, then a ten, now you're at fifty-fifty. Okay? Fine, you'll still stay here, especially if you win. Uh, so let's stride two. This next bet is very important. If you get a six and another stiff, you're out of there. I don't care if you won all of them. The premise of winning at first base is to get a double hard card. Um, what you could do, if you're winning every hand, you don't ditch the game. Ditch first base. This obviously is not. If you're winning, despite the fact that you're not getting the double hard cards, is first base doing its job? No. Your card, you're getting good cards. Do you want to leave a loo winning game at this point? No. You want to throw out what's not working, which is um first base strategy, and immediately start investigating, okay, should I advantage bet now from this position, or shall I start with a negative progression? You following me, everyone? Please, if any, if I'm going too fast, please. Again, I do all this subconsciously in a casino. I don't have to think about any of these decisions. This might be alien to you people. If you don't understand the theory behind why making these decisions, please ask questions.

SPEAKER_02 35:45

Last night I was playing first base and it's in one shoe, it went back and forth. I was finding myself betting up, uh, maybe winning, maybe not catching a double high card. I shifted into a one, two, four. I started running the second bet, so I shifted into a one-four, and then I noticed tens started to follow tens again. I went to a back to a one, four spread and a one-three spread.

SPEAKER_01 36:08

What was the tens ratio though? Was it dispersed throughout the? You have to I'll give you all of exercise right now. What you want to do is, in this is in your brain, okay? I'll make a drawing. Up here. Okay? Here, here's here's you, the blackjack player, okay? This is your subconscious. Okay, this is your brain. This is your conscious. You're consciously thinking about these. If you are seeing this, you have to note it. You have to make a mental picture, like a mental horizontal graph line. Low, high, neutral, high, high, low, high. If your graph, if you are noticing that uh the high, the signature is this way a low round, a high round, a neutral round, a high, high, another low, all the tens are not in one section, obviously. They are scattered throughout the shoe. Everyone follow me? You can see that, it's very simple. If they're scattered throughout the shoe, what's the best way to hit these high tens ratio rounds? If they're scattered all over, alright, suppose you have six, you're in World War II and there's six facing you, what is the weapon you want to have? A machine gun. That way you can offset the they all have um, you know, a single shot, they all have uh shotgun, they all have say uh pistols. If you're sitting here with a machine gun, if you're a crock shot, you'll be able to eliminate them with one spray. Same here with blackjack. If we are trying to pinpoint exactly where these are in this type of a signature, you're not gonna do it. You might hit this one, but then when you make your high bet, you might hit that one. You need a shotgun approach, a spray approach, which will hit a large area. When we do a negative progression, the area is three bets. That's why. One, four, six, one, two, three. That's a three-hand sequence. But if you know that every third within a three-round sequence is always a high round, then your shotgun spray, you know, your machine gun spray will hit its intended target. Okay, you follow it? You're not trying to pinpoint the exact tens, you're trying to pinpoint the area. That's what a negative progression does. It lets you take a wide enough angle shot at the target and leave room for error on either side to hit the tens rate, the area which is rich in tens. Now, suppose you are in the same or in a different game and you recognize that high round comes up, high round comes up, high round comes up, then you got a low, a neutral, a neutral, a low, then you have another high round, another high round, neutral, no, high, all right, low, low, low. Okay? The tens seem to be congregated in one section here, one section here. Tens are following tens in rapid succession here. Yeah.

SPEAKER_07 39:14

I understand exactly what you're saying. Okay. But there are times that I can read what you're saying there better if I'm at first base. I might see it at two chairs over from me. I can read it just as clearly and predict their card. Sometimes I get a little mixed up when I'm trying to read it. I don't I don't know if I'm reading something wrong.

SPEAKER_01 39:32

Well, these things, this is round to round. You have to, and when all the cards are dealt at the end of a round, including the you have to keep track of the break cards that were picked up. You want to know, was that round rich in tens, which means more than 50% or more? If it was, it's a high round. Was it significantly less than 25%? If it's 25%, that is falling too close to neutral for me. So if you're looking at a round and all and say 20% of the cards were 10s, then I would say, okay, start favoring at either neutral or neutral low. Okay? The whole key is to locate high, 50% tens ratio areas. If they are dispersed evenly throughout the shoe, like that, negative progression because it can it gives you a three bet shot at whichever one of these might be high. Okay? If the tens are coming in rapid succession, one after another, what does that tell you about this shoe? They're here. You don't need to fire over here and over here. When tens start, um, when highs start following, next round you bet high. Next round you bet high. And if you start looking at the tail ends of these rounds, if this was significantly high, this was high, ending with high. This one was high, but the last five cards were low. Suspend the um suspend it. Remember, after you know that it's at least two, there's been at least two high rounds in a row. Once you get past the third, once you play the third, start looking for signals that it's changing to low again. Okay? Also, if you notice that high rounds follow high rounds pretty tightly, but they never last more than three, there you have it. If you can pinpoint the first one, fine, but if the first if the first high round comes and you didn't bet high, you bet low, you missed it, fine, you have you can bet two more high bets. Is everyone following me?

SPEAKER_06 41:32

Got a question about how the um signature changes. Let's say you're going through your your strike system where you eliminate highs. Um you look at the last three cards after a high round or after a low round. Um let's say that that you start noticing that you get three high cards after a low round after you've eliminated. Uh previously you've eliminated the low rounds.

SPEAKER_01 42:03

You follow what I'm oh uh it's not, you see, clumping when we're talking about clumping in terms of a high round being after a high round being of an area which is 50% tens, a low round being an area which has say 15% tens, random probability mean is tens are 30.8% of the cards in the deck. Okay, if you're at 50%, that's significantly higher than 30%. If you're at 15% tens, that's significantly lower. What we're doing here if these high, low neutral areas, they're so far away. A high round is definitely very far away from neutral and miles away from a low round. These clumps are hard to shuffle out in this way of diagramming. In the old MBJ, meaning if you had five out of 13, we said that was high, or three out of 13, we said that well, that was old, that was not right. That's you know, that's too close to random probability. Now, Alice in his infinite wisdom has put in the world-class play a high round is 50% tens. That's the area where the deal is most likely to break. That is the danger area. That is significantly higher than random tens distribution, which is 30%, but a low tens ratio round, you want to see significantly less than 30.8% tens in that round to say, yes, this is a clumped round. This isn't just a slight aberration from norm. Sir in the back.

SPEAKER_04 43:34

Do you consider uh based on the uh high card deuce? Do you consider based on what? Based on the high card deuce.

SPEAKER_00 43:43

Yes.

SPEAKER_04 43:44

Do you consider any of the others three, four, five, six, when you see a situation of it falling among three or four highs?

SPEAKER_01 43:55

Uh it depends, again, just like role-class play on the game you're in. Most situations, though, I again I that's a bad question to answer because you have to know the history of your game. It might be a decent indicator in one game, but normally it's not. Normally, you want to catch, you don't want to take shots. When you play first base, you're giving a lot up. You don't get to see the card after the whole card. You don't get to see uh hardly anything leading to to furnish, you know, you can't get a more enhanced hit or stand decision, okay, at first. You give a lot up. So when you're giving that much up at first base, you better damn well be precise when you're predicting these first card tens and filling with another high card. So you don't want to take shots, uh, the last time it was a 10, 10, 6, 10, I got a double high card. No, you want to define a strategic point where you're going to catch a double high card, not just take shots. Okay? Statistically, your best chance is after a troop, you know, in the middle of catching a 10, and then another 10 is your first to catch the first card 10, but in the middle, you want to be in the middle of the high card clump. Uh so you know you won't be disappointed. Now, if if you're betting after two, like