SPEAKER_04 0:02

You know, in the middle of catching a can and then another can is your first to catch the first card can, but in the middle, you want to be in the middle of the high card clump. Uh so you know you won't be disappointed. Now, if if you're betting after two high cards, you as you thought that but that's all it might be. It's better to have three because then you know it's gonna be a it's a clump. I know what you said. Uh a low, a high, a dirty high card clump. That's what you mean. You want to bet high, you just saw a 10, 6, 10, 10. You want to bet high off it. Uh in some games, they're so overclumped. If you that is a game where you are betting after high tens ratio areas only. You find everyone following me? The tens are tightly clumped together. Does everyone understand that? In that situation, after a double high card, uh, if you follow me, he's saying if you see this at the tail end of a signature, at the tail end of a round, king, six, king, queen, obviously that's not three high cards in a row. Normally you would say no, that's not, and normally you're right to say no, I'm not going to make a high bet because that's only two. You want three. Three is the magic number. But if you are betting after high tens ratio rounds, meaning you've found out the winners are coming from. The winners, again, double high cards are coming only after high tens ratio rounds. What does that tell you about the signature of the tens ratio? Anyone, quick. What is it? Light clump or heavy clump? Heavily. Very good. They're in one section. Right here, you have four cards. 75%, three or four are high. It ended in a double high. You're still probably in the section. Continue the high back. Only when you're in that section, though. You can get away with that type of a dirty clump. Okay? You satisfied with the answer? Okay.

SPEAKER_01 2:04

These last uh three cards. Looking at these last three cards, uh, or four cards, including a high uh deuce, as you demonstrated before.

SPEAKER_04 2:15

In for example, if the last card is a deuce, is that a high deuce then, or is it a start of Okay, in again it gets uh she's asking if you see uh this uh King King Queen Deuce. You have a triple high card, right? Ending with a deuce. It is a deuce. As I said before, that deuce could signal what? In addition, a change to the lows. You must qualify in that game that as well before you place a bat. You want to see the results of three of those triple high cards ending with a 10 deuce. Again, no nine deuce, ten deuce. See if the first card out of the shoe, two out of three times, is the first card ten, and you're filled with a double high card. If you do, then you could start using that as well as a high bet. Is everyone following me? There's a lot to do here. Anyone who thinks this is easy is fooling himself. There's a lot of work here, but it gets eat with practice. I still practice at least an hour a day, every day. I can see all of these things and I note them without even thinking. You have to get to that level before you want you can consistently win trip after trip after trip.

SPEAKER_02 3:26

John, are you keeping track of these rounds mentally or without mentally?

SPEAKER_04 3:32

You I can do it mentally. There's no shame in piling up chips. Do it. If it's if if you don't, there's that's fine. It's just as good as doing it mentally. I can do it mentally, so that's the way I do it. Ellis does it mentally, that's the way he's always done it. Some people don't have the capacity, we're not saying you're, you know, we're any smarter than you, or we just have a little better aptitude at mentally visualizing this. If you have problems doing that, by all means, please set up the totem pole, the chip, the stacks of chips, which tell you. Because here it might be easier for you all to do that. If you set up a stack of chips, you have an instant three-dimensional diagram of the clumping in this shoe. It's gonna be vertical. If you turn this on its side, you have this. And what is that? The shoe. So let's diagram it. This right here, here's a low round. Here's a high round, here's a high round, here's a high round, here's a neutral round, here's a neutral round, here's a low round, here's a low round, here's a neutral, low high. Low, high, high, high, neutral, neutral, low, low, neutral, low, high. What can someone tell me about this clumping? It's simple. You just look at it, the tens are right here in one section. What game type are you in? You're in a type uh game where you must use advantage betting. Or in rare instances when you're winning hand after hand after hand uh up as you win. That's if you're winning, and even you're winning these hands as well because the deal is breaking. You know, you uh it's very difficult. Those type of opportunities are not prevalent. This is more likely nine times a ten will be an advantage bet situation. Maybe ninety-eight times out of a hundred. The other two times out of a hundred in this situation, you would use up as you win. Everyone follow that? Uh I do that mentally as well. You can get the best, you can do that. I know the dealer is breaking 30% of the hands. I just watched uh I note the exact number of hands is broken. I get a mental picture of that. Uh if you want to note it with the chip, please. Do it the chips. There's no shame in do using chips. Okay? It actually might for most of you it's the best thing to do. Just offset the chip, of course. You'll see where the dealer brakes come from. But the key thing with brakes is what how many is he breaking or not? If he's breaking 30% of the time, it's close, it's that's close to what basic strategies it takes. You would favor basic and the basic grounds. You attend in the hair, you know the hairline decisions that you have to make sometimes. The ground is uh it's leaning towards low. There's around 20% attends on the layout. So favor basic in that situation. Okay, you follow me? Any other questions before I move on?

SPEAKER_07 6:24

The chip thing, I mean you obviously have one for one shoe and you start the next shoe, you start a whole new chip thing. Exactly.

SPEAKER_04 6:31

But one thing I want to say before you start this question.

SPEAKER_07 6:34

Excuse me?

SPEAKER_04 6:35

Yeah, you just break it down and start over new.

SPEAKER_07 6:37

And the second one and then you start the third round.

SPEAKER_04 6:40

One thing, remember, what are we tracking here? 50% tens ratio areas. That's a high round. A low round, we're saying it's less than way, significantly less than 25. I'd say less than 20% tens. And a neutral round is just that, between around 20 and 45% tens. These are very dense areas, they're hard to shuffle out. It will keep perpetuating itself in this model. In the old MBJ model, when we said 4 out of 13 is neutral, 5 out of 13 is high, 3 out of 13 is low, all you have to do is inject 110 into that 13, and it could change the entire signature too volatile. It is not volatile in this way, that's why the master Ellis has, you know, has realized yes, these game signatures won't change if they're viewed in this manner. That is clumps. That is a clump configuration.

SPEAKER_00 7:28

Another mechanical question. If uh one asks a dealer for ten pink chips because you want to use them for your neutral rounds, they're not usually. Yeah. Yes. They usually don't want to give them to you.

SPEAKER_04 7:39

Use white, red, green. Start bringing more money to the casino with you so you can get some greens. Remember, you're not gonna see many high tens ratio rounds anyway. Uh six greens will suffice for a shoe. So if you buy in with um $200, $220, say, you'll get $150, ask for $150 green, 40 red, 10 white. They'll give you the white, they'll they'll say sure, because they think you're gonna be a tipper. But obviously, you're not using it for your for your signature, but you don't have to let them know that.

SPEAKER_05 8:11

Oh, will that?

SPEAKER_04 8:12

Okay, that's a good suggestion right there. If you feel worried that they're gonna pinpoint you as having some sort of, you know, diabolical strategy to defeat them, buy your chips out of craftsable. He said they'll give you any denomination you want.

SPEAKER_07 8:26

And they're gonna give you all the red you need when you say that.

SPEAKER_04 8:30

Yeah, don't you don't need pink. You can go again. As long as you have $200, listen, you guys bought a manual here that's $400 and you've paid $500 for a world-class manual. If you're going to the casino at less than $200, that means uh, you know, I don't that's a very bizarre situation. I don't think anyone in this room goes at less than $200. Okay. Any other questions? You've got to move on. Okay. Um, let's go on to uh next uh um I'm gonna go to the next topic. Let me see. Oh, table oh, change the tape. Now I'm gonna give you um specific uh advice on the best way to utilize no rent. Okay, everyone everyone's familiar with it. When to play it. You do not want to play no rent in most situations because tell me why, what does that do to the game? Exactly, it keeps changing the player number. You want to play no rent in this situation. You're in a game, you're winning, you're doing phenomenal on your high bets. You're catching double high cards, you're winning 70% of the high bet. You're getting slaughtered after all neutral and low rounds. Literally slaughtered, you're winning 20%. Don't give them, don't give them, you know, that those low bets, okay? Start playing, unless your spread is way up. I'm talking about if you're in a game and you've been there for a while and you're a one-to-five spread, fine. Your advantage on your high bet will negate the slaughtering on the low bets. But suppose you're in a game where you're winning 60% of your high bets, you're doing very well, and you're getting massacred on the low bets, but you don't want to depart the game. Okay? What you do here is just like um uh an aircraft would do, suppose that they want they're in the midst of having difficulties. Uh, and uh we'll even say uh that's not a good example, but all right, just follow me for a minute. They jettison fuel, okay? They want to take as much danger as possible out of that crash landing as possible. So they have a button on the cockpit panel. It does jettison fuel. It re the fuel literally gets thrown out of the airplane, gets blown out. What the pilot there is doing is he's trying to reduce risk to everyone on that plane when landing that it doesn't blow up. Okay? That's what you're doing here. You're in a game. The casino is blowing you up during low and neutral rounds, but you're blowing them up after high rounds. Let's suspend. So if we stay in that game, we're gonna have no advantage because the slaughtering on the low rounds and the neutral rounds, you know, when we're not making a hard bet is negating our advantage in the high bet. We have no recourse here then to a leave a winning situation, or b, you play no rent. Do not give them the opportunity to slaughter you. You've already realized, hey, uh, if I play a spread here, this the low round rent that we're paying will eat up my profits that I make on the high bet. Fine. Once you have ascertained that and only that, you go to a no-rent situation. What you do is, after your next high bet, if it's not a high bet, just tell the I'm a little tired, I'm gonna, you know, sit out a few hands. They'll still say, okay. And then when the high better, go in again. Okay? Now, if after that one, there's another high bet, fine. You just place it and they'll think everything's, you know, kosher. But uh, if you drop out again, you just say, uh, I just don't feel lucky. Keep making excuses, they won't bother you after a while. If the player starts screaming, fine, just ignore them, completely ignore them. You stay at that no-rent situation for as long as you are winning and catching double high cards. That that strategy has saved me so many times from exiting a game. I can tell, I'm sure, has everyone been in one of those games where you're doing great on your high bet, but getting slaughtered on the low bets? Everyone's seen that, right? There's there's there's a tactic right there to keep you in that game. Yeah.

SPEAKER_09 12:32

No mid-shoe entry.

SPEAKER_04 12:34

No midshoe entry, you can't do no rent, obvious.

SPEAKER_09 12:37

Then with the guy at second base, you sit out, and then when you want to make your your big bet, you say to the guy, let me play on your hand, because he's now the first base player.

SPEAKER_04 12:45

Oh, you're sitting at first second base?

SPEAKER_09 12:48

I'm sitting at first base and I'm getting killed. I sit out.

SPEAKER_04 12:50

Right.

SPEAKER_09 12:51

I can't re-enter the shoe because there's no mid-shoe entry.

SPEAKER_04 12:54

Then drop out before you drop out, second base. Yeah, right.

SPEAKER_09 12:57

I see my advantage. He's now becomes de facto the first base player.

SPEAKER_04 13:01

Right.

SPEAKER_09 13:01

I now would make a big bet. I can't would you put him on a shoe?

SPEAKER_04 13:05

You're gonna ask him if you're diplomatic enough, he'll he'll accept your offer and he'll say, okay. And then sooner or later he'll catch on. Hey, this guy's obviously knows when to make a bet. He'll more than he'll welcome your bet every time because he'll he'll see, hell, every time this guy bets, I'm gonna win. So obviously he's gonna invite you, he's gonna hope you're betting every time, but you're not, but he'll see when the favorable opportunity is to bet if he's intelligent. A lot of these people, you know, that sit down here are dumber than a bag of ronks. So so just keep that in mind. Yeah.

SPEAKER_05 13:39

Rather than uh changing the number of players at the table, why not just increase your spread to 10 to 1 or something like that?

SPEAKER_04 13:45

Because you have to work up to that kind of spread. If you, as I said two minutes ago, if you're already up to like a one-to-five spread, if you get even when you're getting slaughtered, you'll have enough horsepower on that, on the, you know, on the amount you're winning on the on the high bets to offset the slaughtering on the low bets. That's not that's a rare, you know, circ that's a circus that comes up a lot, fine. But if you're in a game where you're you've made maybe seven or eight high bets and you've won five, but you're just getting massacred on low bets, protect those high bets and drop out of the low the slaughtering. Because if you're only up five or six is three to four units, you're not betting a one to five spread yet. You're still at it, maybe you're at a one to three. You're not you're not at a high enough spread to offset the slaughtering. You're going, you're taking, you're shallanking, you're taking on your low bets.

SPEAKER_02 14:35

How does the number of players affect um first face regarding um the length of the clumps, the length of the clumping?

SPEAKER_04 14:43

Okay, great question. The clumping, obviously, uh more players there are, the more clumps, but the more players you have there, the more the dealers' ten up instances increase. Do you follow me? You could be catching, the clumping's increasing, great. You're gonna catch more first cart ends. So is the dealer. Do you follow me? It offsets. Does everyone follow that answer I just gave to that question? It's an important theoretical example. How about sure? How about that?

SPEAKER_06 15:09

Okay, how about if I call it? Let me address this again.

SPEAKER_04 15:12

Okay, let me exactly. The more players at the game, you don't even have to worry about that. The more players at the game, the more the dealer is going to catch a 10 up. Now remember, what is a 10 up for the dealer? A first card 10, that's his first card. So if you're in a game and you're you're getting 50% first card 10s, but so is the dealer. You're that then you're not doing anything there. You're you're not negating the negative advantage in that game. The dealer is offsetting your first card 10s with him. So you also have to be aware of how many times in this game uh is the dealer getting a 10 up, first card 10. Remember, a 10 up is a dealer, first card 10. As I said in this, your you know, your pre-flight check, you are looking at the dealer's break ratio and the number of 10 ups. Okay?

SPEAKER_02 16:00

Also, I was gonna add that that the lengths of the clumps and the lengths of the um and the number of players are gonna determine whether or not you get that second card.

SPEAKER_04 16:11

No, what determines that is the tens ratio.

unknown 16:14

Okay.

SPEAKER_04 16:15

If you're catching it at the high tens ratio rounds, again, the second card is purely uh it's not a random act. It's you're trying to define in that shoe to the art of catching another high card is simply the art of determining how the tens are dispersed. If they are evenly dispersed, then you have a better, then you have, you know, if they're evenly dispersed, then that dispersal is favoring your getting a second card. But in a tight, tight situation, you're gonna catch a f you're going to catch a second card because they're so woven together about as you add players, it's gonna stretch out, but it's so heavily clumped anyway that it will continue around and it will continue to the dealer. You follow me?

SPEAKER_02 16:58

Um kind of.

SPEAKER_08 17:00

Okay. Chen. If if say for argument's sake, you're getting uh 60% first card tens, no matter how you do it, right? Oh, it's you're getting 60% first card tens. Yeah. And the dealer's getting 60% first card tens, but my second card is coming after his first card 10. I'm getting the next card after his 10. Which, if he's getting that 10 up all the time, I'm still assuming that 10's following 10s, I'm still in better position.

SPEAKER_04 17:26

You can't get into that type of thinking at the table. What you want to simply define is where uh the you're not where the win is coming from. Are they coming after high rounds or low rounds? You don't don't think well if the deal like it's 10, then the clump's ending over here and then it's over there. No. You yeah.

SPEAKER_08 17:40

He's showing me it's still that there's a 10-card clump. If he's getting a 10 on top, my second.

SPEAKER_04 17:45

Hopefully, what you're doing why I'm uh or involved why you're betting after three cards is you're in a clump, it will probably end right after you, because there aren't that many clumps that are 10, 15 cards in a row. When it comes around again, when it comes around again, again, if it's in a high card clump, if it's a h if it's a tightly woven high card clump, think about it.

SPEAKER_08 18:07

10 up is the indicator.

SPEAKER_04 18:08

No, I know it's an indication, but also you will cat you already have your first card 10. Okay? It could it changes often enough away from that that the deal is not 10 up all the time, you understand? But if per chance he is, the game is over clumped. And you're gonna push 20s with him. Only in a severe can you visualize that? Only in a severely.

SPEAKER_08 18:26

But no matter what he turns up, it's an indication of my second card.

SPEAKER_04 18:30

Excuse me?

SPEAKER_08 18:31

No matter what he turns up in a sense, is an indication of my second card.

SPEAKER_04 18:35

Basically, yes, but it but what I'm saying is it couldn't it's depends on time.

SPEAKER_08 18:41

My second card.

SPEAKER_04 18:42

No, that does not necessarily mean a ten up for the dealer. Do you understand?

SPEAKER_08 18:47

Well, I see in a situation where a dealer's getting a lot of tens up, you're telling me it doesn't get to stay out of that game, but on the other hand, if I cut my second card is coming in.

SPEAKER_04 18:57

Uh uh only in rare circumstances will you get the dealer getting a 10 up and you're getting a 20. And if you're both pushed, you're worrying about that because you're he's getting a 10 up, but your fill card is a 10 because he has a 10 up. It's finishing a clump. Fine. If the clumps are that lengthy, then the casinos have done their job. Congratulate them. They have clumped all the tens into one section, no one wins.

SPEAKER_08 19:17

It alternates as it goes around the table.

SPEAKER_04 19:19

A lot of games it does alternate, and no one, uh unless you uh no one has a crystal ball or a Ouija board to say the clump is going to end after three cards, the clump is gonna end after five cards. It's impossible to determine that. You should not waste your brain power thinking about such because it's mathematically unquantifiable. I understand that, and that means you want to hope for a 10 up because that means you also 50% of the time the clump could change. That's what I'm saying. You're not trying to win everything. You want to win about seven if you win 70% of the hands, that's great. Yeah, I know, I know, but I'm trying to um yeah.

SPEAKER_08 19:59

If he gets a low on his up card, I'm probably gonna get a low on my own.

SPEAKER_04 20:02

Not necessarily, you don't know. You don't know what that's why you're looking where are the winners coming from. Double high card is usually a winner. Okay, then why do you think I have where are the winners coming from on the pre-flight checklist before you increase your spread? You don't want to get into a game with a spread, even a one-to-three spread where you know, where you're trading 20s with a dealer. Just what? What are you saying? Uh, we want to hear it if you have something to say. No, I'm not I'm not being combative with you. We're trying to learn here.

SPEAKER_08 20:33

No, but I mean if a clump is a clump. You know, oily shows a 10 up, and I'm gonna get the next card after this deal. I kind of would be able to do that.

SPEAKER_04 20:40

We can't learn about that though. You don't I understand what you're saying, but no, the second card is you we have no control over it. The only anyone who could tell you they could predict uh the that the clump is gonna be seven cards and like the five cards, like you don't know. The first, what we're doing is reducing risk on the first card by hitting into a clump. Do you follow that? The second card, the only way we could, we have no way of determining that. The only way we could reduce risk is to know where the where the winners are coming from. Do you understand? Good.

SPEAKER_08 21:07

Okay, I get my ten. Right. Okay, the dealer comes around and he gets a 10. Okay. I got, I mean, I just saying it's just if the dealer is a dealer might be stiff, sir. 70, 80%. Yeah, but if he's yeah, no, I'm not gonna be able to do it.

SPEAKER_04 21:18

But the thing is, good. If you get your first card 10 and say 50% of the time the dealer gets a first card 10 in those high bet rounds that you're getting, okay, say he does, say it won't even happen 50. Say it happens 40%, and you're catching um, say, 50, 60% first card 10s, the hands where the dealer doesn't get a first card 10, you should you understand? It's a random area. It's going to be 4 and 13, the fill, the fill ratio. You understand? The second card, I don't, the only way you can even harness any control over it, because we don't know what we're keying off of. The second card's just cards pulling out of a shoe, is knowing where our best hands are coming after. What we're trying to do, this is not an exact science. We're trying to Reduce risk in an intelligent manner. The way to do that is A try and control probability in increasing our chances to catching a first card 10. Everyone here is well versed in that. And the only mathematical and logical way to increase your probability that you're going to catch a second card high is to know after what rounds the highs are coming. A if the dealer gets a 10 up and starts pushing at you, you know what kind of game you're in. Over clumped. It's time to say bye-bye. There's nothing you can do about that. Except leave. Okay? That's the second card, we there is no. We can't predict. We can only eliminate risk and turn it in our favor if we know where our double high comes are coming from. If it doesn't do the job, if the dealer's also getting a double high card, fine. We gave it our best chance. We tied them, we leave, we try and find a better game. Is that basically the answer? Okay.

SPEAKER_10 22:56

I can see both of your points.

SPEAKER_04 22:58

Okay.

SPEAKER_10 22:59

He's saying if.

SPEAKER_04 23:01

I understand. If the dealer gets a first card ten, that means it's an it's a high card clump, so you want to see him get a first card ten. No, I know, but you're saying the math of clumping is you're gonna get the second car ten only if if the dealer's card before it was a ten because you're it if the clump is coming that way. I know what you're saying. I can visualize it. That's true. In some in a lot of instances, it's gonna be that way, but in a lot of instances it is not. The car just gonna be rambled.

SPEAKER_08 23:28

Excuse me? That's a that's a good thing.

unknown 23:32

I agree.

SPEAKER_00 23:34

Listen to him for a moment.

SPEAKER_04 23:40

But you've already you're you're gonna get your tens at a greater hit rate than the dealer for the civil fact. You can control after what round, after why you increase your bet. He can't. He's always gonna get that fifth or seventh card. He can't raise his bet, you know, saying, okay, I'm only paying you guys at the rate of you have to bet two chips to win one now. Okay. Yeah.

SPEAKER_10 24:02

What I was trying to say is I can see both your points. You don't want to see the dealer get a 10 up.

SPEAKER_04 24:08

Right.

SPEAKER_10 24:08

But you don't mind the dealer getting a seven, eight, or nine.

SPEAKER_04 24:13

You're gonna see that well. You're hoping the dealer gets a seven eight or nine.

SPEAKER_10 24:19

You'll get a high card for your second card. You don't want to see the dealer get a lot of the fives and sixes because you might be then continue that low cost and get some steps.

SPEAKER_04 24:28

Uh, but the thing is, I understand, I know that's what he's saying, but again, this the the You're not trying to influence a dealer's up card. Obviously, you're trying to influence where your double high cards are coming from. If that's not doing it in that game, the dealer is getting a lot of ten ups and twenties. You gave it your best chance, your most educated guest. You didn't turn out, okay, you go to another table with a very small win or loss.

SPEAKER_10 24:53

The difference is you're talking about 10 ups, and he's saying, well, don't worry about uh deal a high card up, which could be an eight, nine, or or high seven.

SPEAKER_04 25:03

Honestly, you want to make money. Remember, we're on a very fine line here. We've, you know, our percentage is, you know, neg it's not negligible, it's but we're, you know, we're not dealing with a 70% advantage here. It's you know, our advantage, you know, is slightly above random probability, and to for it to balance towards a casino table is very easy. All you have to do is let your guard down at even one table, and that's what will happen.

SPEAKER_10 25:27

Right. The dealer's got the first 10 up. You get to 20, and you'll still happens, you'll find a blue end then.

SPEAKER_04 25:33

Over clump. Right. Probably more than likely. Likely you're in an overcompany and you have to recognize that. You can't get upset over it, you can't get emotional over it. You just say, okay, listen, you did you did your job. You gave it the best try you can. The comp the clumping composition in that game is unbeatable. The casinos have done their job as well to clump the cards up so no one could win. Fine, you go find a more favorable opportunity.

SPEAKER_06 25:56

What happened to the 50% advantage in MBJ at first base? What about it? Well, it's not there anymore. You said you said it's only a couple of years. No, I didn't mean that. You know what I mean.

SPEAKER_04 26:06

It could be even at 8%. It's a very fine line between winning and losing, you understand? If you make a couple of bonehead errors, that negates your rate. Because remember, the rent rounds negate your advantage. If you make an error on your high bets, that's it. Do you follow me?

SPEAKER_06 26:20

The low ratio rounds, the rounds you're playing the rent in, those keeping error is out of it, but uh obviously these percentages are based on the proper plate, right? So the 15% is still there.

SPEAKER_04 26:32

Oh, you can get more. If you're um astute, you can get that's easy that's easily attainable if you do everything that I do, which is a lot, but n everyone in this room could do it. It's not too difficult. It's just discipline and practice. I didn't come up with all these things just by magic or hoping or wishing. I came up with them because I sat down and practiced and studied the theory. If I didn't know the theory of these, would I have been able to come up with all these little nuances of the game? Seriously, because I know the theory behind clumping. You've got to know the theory behind clumping. You've got to get a handle on what clumping is doing in that game in order to defeat it. It's like trying to crack a code. If you get the combination to that safe, you can get in there anytime you want. Same with here. Once you can crack that code in that game, you can get your hands into that safe, the DLS chip tray when you want.

SPEAKER_02 27:22

Under your first base system, would you also want to see what's happening after neutral rounds as well, like you did for high and low rounds?

SPEAKER_04 27:31

Uh, okay. If you're catching first card tens after everything, then that's what I'm saying. You're in a game where you're in a window of plumping, that's what I'm saying. You can control your first card 10. If it's in a game where the 10s ratio is scattered throughout the shoe, it is a random act, you catching a second card. Anyone who tells you it's not is you know, but think about it. Even with random probability, okay, these are the chances, these are the cards you can fill with. Another ace, there you go, blackjack, a deuce, a twelve, three, a four, five, and a six. Okay? These you can do something with. These are usually meaning a quick death. That you can is uh not that great. Okay? Then you have eight, nine, ten, jack, queen, king. Okay? Let's count it. One, two, three, four, five, six, seven. Seven out of thirteen are very favorable. Seven out of thirteen will get you a winner. Out of these, say only what you'll only win one and you lose two. You're now at eight out of thirteen. Out of these, say you only win one and lose two. Nine out of thirteen, that's what you're gonna win. Okay? You follow me? That's random probability, your chance is random probability when you catch a first card ten. So if you ascertain you're in a random situation, good, great. We'll win nine out of thirteen hands. I can take that. Can everyone else? Okay? Any any other questions on this? Oh, you want to take the towel mellow?

SPEAKER_03 29:25

Uh one thing I'd like you to understand about first base, I know John covered a lot of stuff, is the when we say the percentage of how frequently you'll win when you get a first card 10. The way we did that is we actually tracked that ratio over thousands and thousands of hands. Recognize that that ratio isn't always 70% in every game. It can it can it can run around quite a bit. Uh, for instance, if you are in a highly, highly clumped game, you'll find that the dealer will match your 10 quite frequently. Whenever you get a first card 10, the dealer gets a first card 10, they want your advantage. You're now playing her even from that point. And in some games, you'll find the percentage is even higher than 70%, in some games it'll be lower than 70%. But if you look at thousands of actual games, you'll find that just from that basis, when you get a first card 10, you're looking at winning 7 to 8 percent of the hands. Okay, let's move on to something else. I want to talk to you a little bit about the merits of playing dealer strategy in low ratio rounds. You'll find these kinds of statistics in an average game. You'll find about one-third, if you if you track the ratios, I know a lot of you have, in an average game, you'll find about one-third of the shoe is high ratio, and uh two-thirds is low ratio. Every now and then you can catch a shoe that is one hundred percent low ratio. The only thing that happened is that you've got all of your tens in one clump or one area of the shoe, and that area got cut off by the cutoff card. So you end up with a you've we've all had those nightmarish shoes. You keep waiting for the tens, and you're waiting for the tens, the shoes over, the tens never came out. Uh that can happen. There was a game that uh Harvey and I played uh the Thursday of Labor Day weekend, where uh Harvey and uh Michael Blacklock and I were playing. I was playing first, Harvey was playing third, and Michael was in the middle. There was nobody else in the game. And the dealer started dealing from the beginning. We first sat down at the table. She started dealing from the beginning of the shoe. We got halfway through the shoe, halfway through the shoe, a total of 11 tens had fallen. So I said, Harvey, and we weren't winning, obviously. Total of 11 tens fell and half a shoe. So I said, Harvey, you know, that's the 11th 10 that's fallen. And Harvey just got up from his chair and he says, let's go find a better game. So Harvey and I took off, and Michael sat right there. I don't know where the heck my brains were. But of course, Michael sat right there because that means all the tens are gonna come out now and the rest of the shoe. Michael won $4,500 in the rest of the shoe. Just won just about every single hand. I don't know what was wrong with uh Harvey and I. We just didn't, we weren't thinking about it. But let me talk to you about playing dealer strategy because I know that it's the hardest part of MBJ to actually do in a casino. It's not difficult, by the way, for new players, for players where that learn how to play cards on MBJ. They do it. If anything, they'll hit too much, if anything. But for people that learned basic strategy first and then learned MBJ, that's the biggest change that we have to make. And especially if you get in a game and a couple of your MBJ plays backfire on you right off the start, and they really look foolish, don't they, when they do backfire, like you hit a 13, you draw, you draw a 10, you know, and end up giving the dealer her hand and making everybody mad. It can happen. And it will happen. But I want to just uh oh, and by the way, when we have that one-third ratio of high card tens, I forgot to finish that. The you can get shoes where you don't even have a third of the shoes, high card. You can get it, you can get shoes or games, for instance, that have shoes, maybe only has 25% high tens ratio. That just means the the tens are clumped much cleaner in that in that game. And a game that has only a 25% high cards area in it, is very difficult to it's very difficult to play. Because you're going to push a lot with the dealer when you get to the high, when you get to your favorable area. Games could easily be overcome, particularly here in Atlantic City. We don't see it that much in Vegas, but we see it in Atlantic City and just about everywhere else, all the time. Now, I want you to think in terms for a minute that the low ratio portion of the shoe, I don't want to talk about neutrals right now. I'm just gonna talk about high ratio and low ratio, but that the low ratio of the shoe is dealer favorable. I want you to think of it in terms of dealer favorable. Yeah, we're gonna win as many hands as we can in the low ratio. Sometimes you can actually even win more than half of them in the low ratio. But your real job in the game is to win the high ratio rounds and to win as many of the low ratio rounds as you possibly can. We might call low ratio as the rent that we have to pay in order to play the high ratio rounds. One of the tricks you can do, by the way, in Atlantic City is not play the low ratio rounds. Just don't play until you see the tens come out. Most casinos in Atlantic City will let you do that. Some will let you do it in Vegas, particularly if you're tipping. Almost every dealer in Atlantic City will let you do that, particularly if you tip a little bit. That's one reason that you might tip to do that. But that's not what I want to talk about right now. I want to talk about when we're playing the whole shoe. And I want to talk about the fact that about two-thirds of the shoe, therefore, it being low ratio, is dealer favorable, and one-third of the shoe being high ratio is player favorable. Now think about it, it's easiest to explain if I explain it from the standpoint of a head-to-head game. I'm going to give you three reasons, three reasons to play dealer strategy. Dealer strategy is a triple-edged sword, and very few people realize this. You take a game, you're playing head-to-head, and you play it basic strategy, and you count the high ratio rounds, and you count the low ratio rounds, and you come up with a difference of those ratio of one-third, two-thirds. One-third high ratio to two-thirds low ratio. So one-third of the shoe was advantageous to you, two-thirds was advantageous to the dealer. Now you take that same game, you take that same game and play the low ratio rounds dealer strategy. What happens? The ratio in the whole game is going to change. It's going to go roughly 50% high ratio and 50% low ratio. Recognize that one of the reasons that you have so many low ratio rounds is because nobody hits in low ratio rounds. If nobody hits in the low ratio rounds, the cards last longer and longer and longer. It takes you forever to get out of the low ratio rounds because nobody's hitting in the game. If you're playing head-to-head, you're playing basic strategy, you're not hitting. You never hit in low ratio rounds. You might, you know, you're going to hit if you got a nine or a ten or eleven. But once you got a 12, 13, 14, 15, and 16, you're going to stand. They don't even like it in this city when you hit a 12 against a two. They don't like it. They get mad at you, you know. So the players, they won't hit. So those cards last forever. It takes you forever to get through those cards and to get into the high ratio. Now, what do we do in the high ratio versus the basic strategy player? The basic strategy player hits everything in a high ratio. He's going to hit any 12, any 13, any 14, any 15, or any 16 against any up card of 7, 8, 9, or 10. That's the way he was taught to play. Okay? So what did he do? He waited for the maximum dealer break area of the shoe to stop hit, to start hitting. The maximum dealer break area of the shoe is also his maximum break area. If he hits during that portion of the shoe, he's going to break ahead of the dealer. So we don't. So we use up less cards in the high ratio round, stretching the high ratio round out, okay? Whereas a basic strategy player, he hits more in that portion, shrinking the high ratio cards down, shrinking the number of rounds possible down, and he does the exact opposite and low ratio. So he's penalized himself, hasn't he? He's making the dealer favorable part of the shoe last twice as long as it needs to last, and he's making his favorable player area, player favorable area of the shoe go by too quickly. He's penalizing himself. I want you to think about that. You know, it isn't just a question, dealer strategy, of winning more hands. You are gonna win more hands, but that isn't even necessarily the biggest advantage of dealer strategy. The biggest advantage is probably the fact that you just change the ratio of the whole game. That's why I say the more MBJ players are in the game, the better off you are. The more you're going to change that ratio. That's why playing MBJ head-to-head works so well. You're 100% of the players, aren't you? Now you got 100% of the players playing dealer strategy at low ratio rounds. The dealer's gotta do it, right? And when you do it, you know the dealer's gonna look at you, it's gonna look at you like you're stupid when you make these low ratio rounds. But the dealer never gives that a thought. You're getting through these low ratio rounds very, very quickly. For instance, if we are playing a uh sacrifice hand in a head-to-head game, in the low ratio rounds, we want to split with that sacrifice hand. Do everything you can, get rid of low ratio cards. That's what the sacrifice hand is there for. They're dealer favorable. Absorb them, get them out of the game. Just like the dealer takes tens out of the game, she deals everybody a two, a two, ten, twenty. You're taking low cards, you're taking her cards out of the game. You're literally cheating, but you're doing it legally. Okay? You're taking her cards out of the game. That's why the two the two hands, one of the reasons why playing two hands uh works so well. So now let me tell you what third, the third edge of this sword. If you're playing dealer strategy and the dealer's playing dealer strategy, there ain't gonna be no dealer biases because the cards don't know who the hell's dealing now. Alright? You understand? There can't be any dealer biases. They're just going to vanish. All right? They'll go right away. When we play head to head our way, you will almost always knock the almost always knock the dealer off of a dealer strategy. The only if, and I guarantee you that if you play long enough, you will knock the dealer off of a dealer off of dealer bias, not dealer strategy, but you'll knock her off of dealer bias. You will you'll absolutely do it. The only thing is, is that isn't a reason now to go through your stop loss. You don't say, well, you know, Davis says I can't go through my stop loss, but he also tells me to knock the dealer off of this dealer bias, so I gotta go through my stop loss to do that. No, don't go through your stop loss to do it. That's going a little bit too far. But that's why I'm going to tell you that I win about 80% of the heads-up games that I play, and that's why. That's why you've changed the whole ratio of the game, you change the ratio between dealer favorable and player favorable, you're going to win more of those rounds. How does a dealer win 60% of the hands? She doesn't do a play in our play in basic strategy, they only win 40%. She does it play in dealer strategy. Dealer strategy wins more hands in the low ratio area. Look at it from a practical standpoint. The card counter, when he counts cards, is counting cards for one reason and one reason only. Many of you are ex-card counters. Some of you still count cards, you just don't do it when I'm around. Alright, here's what's going on. All card counting tells you is where the dealer is most likely to break. Sure, it's trying to tell you that there's extra tens. Well, so what? There's extra tens in the rest of the cards. What good does that do you that it doesn't do the dealer? It doesn't help your hand at all. It hurts the dealer because tens make the dealer break. That's what you're looking for when you count cards. You're looking for what area is the dealer going to break the most in. So what does the card counter do? He finds that area. Now he's got all these tens in there. What's he start doing? He starts hitting, doesn't he? Or what did he do all the accounting for to find out where the dealer's going to break if he's going to hit and break ahead of the dealer anyway? You know, that's why it makes a little sense, this card counting. He does all this counting to find out where the dealer is most likely to break, and where the dealer is most likely to break, so is he. So is he. And what does he do with a 16 against a 10? He hits it. And he gets a 26. That's hard to win with 26. You know, that's not the place to hit. That's the place to stand. Why? Well, there's two things that can go wrong when you hit in a high ratio area. Number one, you're hitting in the dealer's weakest area. Her mo her highest break vulnerable area. If it's high tens ratio, your chance of hitting successfully is less than anywhere else in the game. You have less chance of hitting successfully in a high tens ratio area than anywhere else. Why? Well, because that's where the tens are.